IS KEITH ROWLEY A LIAR (OR DOES HE ALWAYS TELL THE TRUTH)?

 Now that I have your attention, what do you think? Is our Prime Minister a liar or does he always tell us the truth? Does he tell us the truth sometimes but lies at others? If so, when do you think that he tells the truth and when do you think that he lies? Why does he lie (if he does) and when he does lie,  does he tell us the truth  at other times? If so, how can we tell when he is lying or when he is telling us the truth? Put another way, can we trust him to tell us the truth at all times?

This, believe it or not, is a serious question. We need to be certain that our leaders (not just Dr. Rowley ... all of our leaders) will tell us the truth all the time. And the reason that this post is concentrating on Dr. Rowley at the moment is because he is the Prime Minister. Except for the names and a few other changes the same or similar questions would apply also to Mrs. Persad-Bissessar. So, please don't mix the apples with the oranges. Let's deal with one leader at a time.

Now, last week Dr. Rowley at a public meeting said that a plane had been sabotaged. Apparently, according to Dr. Rowley, some wires had been cut. Obviously, if this is true then it is a most serious report. People could have been killed when the plane crashed ... I presume that the reason for cutting the wires was to cause the plane to crash.  But was this report true? Or was the statement made for some other purpose? If there was another purpose for the statement to be made then what could that purpose have been? Some persons have suggested that Dr. Rowley was hinting that it (the sabotage) had been done by UNC supporters. Now, to be fair, I didn't get that from his statement and if that was his intention then it passed over my head like the proverbial Concord jet. I don't know where those persons could have got that from or how they could possibly have arrived at that conclusion. But questions do abound. For example, why was this not reported before? When was the sabotage discovered? Who discovered it? Is there video footage? If so, can we see it? If not, why not? And so on. I could list a dozen more questions that need to be answered.

And yes, it is important that all the questions are answered. For example, was it a Caribbean Airlines plane? A private plane? What (besides killing people by causing the plane to crash) was the purpose of the sabotage? Who stood to gain from this if it was a CAL plane? If it was a private plane who wanted to kill the owner? Who is the owner and why would somebody want to kill him?

Unfortunately, this is not the first time that Dr. Rowley has made what can only best be described as rather curious remarks. For example, do you remember earlier this year when the Vice President of Venezuela came over to Trinidad with some PDVSA executives? We were told (by Dr. Rowley) that they came to discuss the COVID epidemic! Frankly, I didn't and still don't believe that. That explanation simply doesn't make sense. Do I know what they  came to discuss? No, though I have my suspicions which are probably better left unexpressed at this time. So? Were we lied to? What was the reason that they came? To discuss COVID? Really? But our health professionals were not present. So? Were we lied to? Why? And, for the record, these questions are asked 'open ended'. If there is a good explanation or explanations then great! But surely, we are entitled to answers?

Of course, the most "famous" example of Dr. Rowley's rather curious allegations is the scandal known as emailgate where a number of Cabinet Ministers in the UNC Government were accused of conspiring to murder a journalist. But after what felt like a million years of investigations the case was quietly dropped as there was absolutely no evidence other than the copies of the alleged emails produced by Dr. Rowley in Parliament. Dr. Rowley's supporters have insisted that the copies are true, but no evidence has ever been produced to suggest that they are.

And then there is the case of the FSO Nabarima. A release from Dr. Rowley's office says that the ship is not listing and is certainly not sinking. But photographs and videos on social media suggest otherwise. So? Is it true that the ship is NOT sinking or listing badly? Certain eyewitnesses say that it is listing badly and is in danger of sinking.

I could go on, but hopefully you get the point. Is our Prime Minister a liar or does he always tell us the truth or does he tell us the truth only sometimes and lies to us at other times? If he lies to us only sometimes, is this important? How do we know or trust that he is telling us the truth on important matters if he is lying to us only sometimes and telling us the truth at other times? Or does he tell us the truth all the time?

A large part of the problem is because our mainstream media is simply not doing its job. The hard questions are not being asked and all three daily newspapers are clearly biased in favour of the Government. But that's another story!

RACISM IN T&T (and its effect on our politics)

 It is a fact that we are in deep economic trouble. Our debt to GDP ratio is now at around 89.6 percent. Not too long again and it will be over 100 percent. The result is going to be more lay-offs, more unemployment, more slowing down and less money to go around. On Sunday last I received three videos of house break-ins in three different areas of Trinidad : Freeport, Valsayn and Westmoorings. The videos were all disturbingly similar - young black men scouting the area before jumping the respective fences.

Now, my take away from these videos (as well as from the countless reports that I keep getting) is that the very severe economic downturn is hurting the black communities worse than the other communities across the land. The problem is that nobody wants to say or acknowledge this because (heaven forbid) any comments could be taken as being racist or being influenced by racism. To which I say, absolute rubbish!

We need to look at our country squarely, warts and all! We need to acknowledge honestly what is going on and who is being hurt. Okay. Everybody is being hurt, but we need to look at who is hurting the most. We can't fix anything if we continue to avoid dealing with the problems that confront us.

Our leaders on BOTH sides of the political divide play the race card 24/7. And don't pretend that it is not true. I have seen and heard countless times, subtle and not so subtle remarks being made on BOTH political platforms, not only by the respective leaders but by their various supporters. Perhaps one of the worst was the "Calcutta ship" remark made at a political rally in Tobago some time ago, and the leader of the particular party who spoke after the remark was made, did not condemn that remark there and then. What was the message to his supporters when he failed to condemn the remark? Was it not that he agreed with it? Of course it was! Either that or he calculated that such a dog whistle would help him get out the vote. Either way, he was as wrong as hell!

Everybody knows that if you are Indian you must vote UNC and if you are African you must vote PNM. And then you have one or two Indians in the PNM who are there for their own personal reasons saying things to the effect that all Indians are not bad and the "good" Indians vote PNM! When I heard that I shook my head in dismay. Unbelievable. And yet there has been no condemnation of these terrible remarks ... at least, none from the PNM side! So? What is the message there from the PNM for their failure to condemn those highly publicized remarks?

Look, a person should join a political party because he/she agrees with its policies and the principles for which it stands. So? What are the policies and the principles of both the PNM and the UNC? How or where are they different? And don't tell me that one is more honest than the other. That simply is not true. The allegations of corruption on both sides are huge. How are their principles and policies different? Or is it that corruption is acceptable because "we" are doing it or "we" are stealing or stole less than "they" did?

Look, it's like having a business that is making a million dollars a year but the manager is stealing a hundred thousand dollars a year. So, the owner of the business changes managers. The new manager continues to steal the same amount as the old manager did, but instead of making an annual million dollar profit he loses a million dollars a year. Obviously stealing is bad and ought to be condemned, but isn't the owner better off with the first rather than the second manager? And shouldn't we also look at that?

So? Besides race, why do you support and vote for the party of your choice? A journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step and for us, I most respectfully suggest that the first step will be to stamp out the racism in our society.. But in order to do so, we are going to have to be honest with ourselves. Only then can we really solve our problems. And that means that you have to be honest with yourself. But that is always difficult, isn't it?

BENCHMARKS

 It is impossible to comment intelligently on Mr. Imbert's latest budget without being accused by one side or the other of being biased. Those who think it was a good budget will be criticized by those who think it was a lousy one ... and vice versa. In true Trini style these criticisms will be laced with personal insults and other invectives.

But what is noticeable is the complete lack of benchmarks. Indeed, nobody over the last six budgets seems to have paid attention to this point. How can anyone say that the Minister will fail if we don't have agreed benchmarks setting out what we expect/hope to happen, say, within the next six months? The next nine months? The next twelve months? What is the measure of success against which we are placing the Governments economic proposals and plans for the next year? Will it be, for example, the creation of a thousand new jobs? Or will it be considered a success if no more jobs are lost? If 'only' a thousand jobs are lost?

I have been listening very carefully to both Government supporters as well as it's opponents. If you fall in the former camp the message is that it is the best that can be done in all the circumstances in this COVID and falling oil and gas prices era. If you fall in the latter camp you will say that the budget was lackluster and has done nothing to give our citizenry any hope whatsoever.

So? What is the truth? I don't know. I'm not an economist and I find that what little brain I have seems to work very differently from the ways that the brains of those who occupy the lofty financial heights of our economy do regardless of whichever side they fall. But I have always found that the best questions are always the ones that go to the root of whatever problem those questions are considering. And I have always found that it is always best to ask what exactly are the benchmarks? What will show us before the end of your experiment (or whatever) whether or not you are succeeding or failing? 

It is unquestionable that we are in deep, deep trouble. And we are looking to our Government (and yes, it is 'our' Government whether you voted for them or not) for leadership. Only the most crass and unpatriotic are hoping that our Government will fail. But, it cannot be unpatriotic to ask them to explain not only their plans, but, what  they say will be the benchmarks by which we can judge them as to whether they are failing or succeeding. And, please; I don't want to hear about the UNC and how they might have done better or worse. Dr. Rowley and his people are in charge ... whether you like it or not! It is up to them to lead us out of this morass in which we find ourselves. I have said it before and I'll say it again: the only test of leadership is to lead, and to lead vigoursly. So, to the Rowley regime I say two things: the first is to lead, follow or get out of the way. The second thing is to ask them what are their benchmarks? What are their standards by which we can judge them as to whether they are succeeding or failing?

A FAILURE OF IMAGINATION

That we are in deep, deep "doo-doo" is unquestionable. The problem is that even before this Coronavirus business knocked everybody sideways we were in deep trouble with falling energy prices, rising unemployment and plant closures (not to mention the closing down of the Pointe-a-Pierre refinery). That is why an active imagination is so important - not to assume the worst but to prepare for all eventualities.

In talking with energy experts over the last few years they all sang from the same song book that oil and gas prices would go down ... and that the drop would be fairly radical. But apart from some 'lyrics' about deals with Venezuela and the Dragon Gas Fields the truth is that the Rowley led regime in the last five years appears to have done nothing. Oh! The Prime Minister did go to Houston and came back boasting that he had made a great deal on gas prices only to have big downstream users of natural gas at Point Lisas close their doors because they couldn't afford the new prices. The end result has been that the National Gas Company (NGC), once the crown jewel in the State's business enterprises, is now in dire financial straits.

And now? Now we are faced with version 2 of the Rowley regime which looks very much like version1 with the only change in the line up of top ministers being the removal and replacement of the hapless and hopeless Dennis Moses, the former Foreign Affairs Minister. But wasn't it Albert Einstein who once famously defined insanity as doing the same thing over and over again while expecting a different result?

No. Frankly, I don't expect any new or innovative thinking to fall from the lips of Finance Minister Colm Imbert on Monday next. He has shown himself to be devoid of any imagination whatsoever and all the evidence points inexorably to a complete failure of imagination on his part. If I am wrong then tell me: what will your bench marks be for the next twelve months that will show that at least we are on the right road? But if I am right, then I predict that things will simply get worse. Haiti has already shown that there is no 'bottom' at which a country can reach and go down no further. That things are worse today than they were a year ago is unquestionable. And while it is true that a lot of this fall in our fortunes was caused by the %$#&*#@% virus, not all of it was; a lot of it was also caused by a complete and disastrous failure of imagination on the part of Dr. Rowley & Co. 

A PERFECT STORM

 To say that I am worried is putting it mildly. The available evidence so far is that the Rowley led administration really doesn't have a clue how to mange the country's finances and has made to date a real mess of things. And as if their incompetence was not enough we put them in charge to manage the economy just when a 'perfect storm' of a crash in energy prices and a global pandemic combined to create a situation that would tax even the best and brightest minds. Unfortunately, they are neither the best nor the brightest so things are now worse than they might have been.

On top of their incompetence is the fact that they simply don't tell us the truth ... about anything! Take the pandemic, for example. Do you really believe that they handled this so well that we were number one in the world? Really? If you are that gullible I have a bridge in Brooklyn that I'd like to sell you ... cheap!

But what has really scared the living daylights out of me is a report from a man called Harry Dent who is the founder of Dent Research and editor of  the "Economy and Markets" newsletter. He says that stocks are nearing a day of reckoning and is predicting a stock market crash of somewhere between 80 to 90 percent early next year. His forecasts are predicated on several variables which include exorbitant debt, aging demographics,  lofty stock and real estate valuations, diminishing central bank control and uncontrolled monetary policy. (Sounds a little like T&T, doesn't? But that's another story.)

Dent said "when this happens, you don't get a 30 to 50 percent stock correction. You get 80 to 90." He went on to say that this type of correction occurs once every 90 years ... and that puts us (meaning the world) right on target. The last time this happened was in 1929 when the stock market crashed leading the whole world into the Great Depression ... which caused (amongst other things) the right conditions for the demagogue that was Adolf Hitler to rise.

Dent calls the Corona virus the "perfect trigger" for the coming economic storm.

So? Obviously there ain't a heck of a lot that we can do about a world wide depression if Dent is right. But we should be preparing ourselves for the coming economic storm in much the same way that we prepare for an approaching hurricane. If it passes us by, then that would be great. But we should be prepared to deal with it if it doesn't! And that's my problem. Because I don't think that this Government ... OUR Government ... has a clue how to deal with the present difficulties, much less Mr. Dent's "perfect storm."

WHY?

 

With the big news in the USA this morning being that President Trump deliberately downplayed the effects of the Corona virus way back in February/March of this year in order not to create a panic, the question here in good old T&T is did our 'favourite' Minister of Health, Terrance Deyalsingh do the same thing when he refused to cancel or postpone Carnival? Next, is what we are experiencing now really a 'second wave'? Or is it that now the election is over that the Government no longer feels it necessary to cover up the amount of cases that there are really in the country?

You see, there is the very reasonable suspicion that we were lied to by the erstwhile Minister and his cohorts from the very beginning about this virus and its effects. Look at what is happening now: we have had since the elections some 2,662 persons tested positive and the number of deaths is now at about 40. And all this is within the last month with the borders closed! I'm not even going to bother with the number of reported cases after Carnival. But do you remember the great Minister telling us that masks were not really necessary? Do you remember him telling us that we were ranked number one in the world for our handling of the virus?

If we were doing such a great job then why is there even this so-called 'second wave'? And why is the number of tests still less than what little Grenada did before we had our elections.

Look, there are a lot of other questions. For example, why is the mainstream media giving our 'favourite' minister such a free pass? Why isn't he being held to account and why is he not being asked the hard questions? 

Tell me, do you think that there was more 'social interaction' over the election period (when the borders were closed) than there was over Carnival (when the borders were open)? And that is why we have this 'second wave' now?

I have my own theories, all of which can be summed up by saying that I think that we have been lied to from the very beginning. I also have my own theories as to why we were lied to ... but its all irrelevant now. The election is over, isn't it? and Deyalsingh is back again back in the saddle!!  He has a job... and a well paid one at that too! Isn't that just great?!

WAITING FOR THE NABARIMA TO SINK

 It is unbelievable that a maritime disaster worse than the infamous Exxon Valdez incident is happening right on our shores and there is little to NO reporting or comment in the main stream media. Take a look at this video:

https://www.facebook.com/593960978/posts/10158943650705979/

The FSO Nabarima has something like 5 times MORE oil in it's hold than the Exxon Valdez had ... and we all know how that ship wreck turned out! So? Why is this being played down? Why is nothing being done by anybody? And if something is indeed being done, then who is doing it (whatever 'it' might be) and why are we not being told about 'it'? Why are there no calls in the mainstream media for something to be done?

Look, I really hope that politics is not coming into play here, but I can't help but feel that is exactly what is happening. You see, the Nabarima is holding thousands of gallons of crude oil and has been parked up in Venezuelan waters in the Gulf of Paria ... the small body of water that separates Trinidad from the mainland. It seems that the Venezuelan authorities parked the ship there and virtually ignored it. Without maintenance the ship has slowly rusted away and is now listing heavily to one side as it takes on water and will probably sink very soon.

But don't we in T&T have the means ... any means of rescuing this situation? And if we don't, surely there are other countries that could help us? Notice I said 'us'. The oil and the ship belong to Venezuela, but if that ship and that oil is threatening OUR well being (as it is) then shouldn't we do something about it whether or not it means going into Venezuelan waters and taking over the ship? After all, if your neighbour's house is on fire and the neighbour doesn't have the means to put out the fire, but the fire is threatening your property, should you do nothing and just wait for your neighbour to ask you for help or do something about it himself? Or should you just wait for your house to catch fire?

Except for the names and a few other changes, this story about the Nabarima is the same one. Clearly, we need to do something, even if that means showing up the total and complete incompetence of the Maburro regime. But if we did that it might mean that we were wrong in the first place to support that terrible man and his cronies, and the present regime in T&T has never (to my knowledge) ever admitted that they were ever wrong about anything. I guess they feel that it is better that we simply have what will probably go down in history as the worst ecological disaster in the world! And our mainstream media will say nothing!

PLAYING WITH OUR LIVES BY REFUSING TO ASK THE HARD QUESTIONS

 It is unbelievable that there has been no real discussion in the mainstream media on the Corona virus. Oh! There have been some articles, but by and large the editorials in the papers and the (mainly pro-government) radio stations and the (again pro-government) television stations have seemingly conspired to keep any real discussion as to how to get out of this awful hole, or even how we got into it in the first place ... given that we were in lockdown since March!

For example, I have seen NO articles or heard any discussions at all about how all of a sudden we are being hit daily with the news that so many more deaths have occurred and there are so many more positive cases being reported. How in the name of heaven did all this happen? Were we told the truth before? 

On the 17th August I wrote a piece in this space which basically said that Mrs. Persad-Bissessar should go ... that she had passed her "sell by" date and it was better for her party as well as for the country that she should go. I still hold to that opinion and subsequent events have only served to strengthen me in that view.

However, this is not the point of this post. The point here is that a day or two later I received a telephone call from the host of CNC 3's   'Morning Brew' program inviting me to discuss why I said that Kamla should go. I said that I would, BUT I questioned why she thought that was more important to discuss than the sudden spike in the Corona virus cases and why her TV station was not holding the Government to account. She had said that she wanted to give me 15 minutes of air time to discuss why I thought that Kamla should go. I replied that we could discuss that in 2 minutes or less but that I thought that this COVID-19 crisis was much more important. Frankly, I accused her and her TV station as being biased in favour of the Government and being unwilling to ask the hard questions. I said that while I agreed that she and her station had every right to be biased they should at least acknowledge that they were. I said that I had formed this opinion because I had never seen them really ask any Government Ministers the really hard questions but instead tended to ask relatively easy questions that allowed the Government to get away with a lot at the expense of the population whom they (the mainstream media) were not informing properly.

She denied strongly that either she or her station was biased and even said that the Prime Minister referred to CNC3 as 'UNC 3'. My reply was that I had never heard him say that before and that in any case I did not think that (if he did indeed say it) was true.

But I have not seen (either on CNC 3 nor on TV 6 nor anywhere else) any criticisms of the Government's handling of this COVID crisis, either before, during or after the elections. To give one example: testing. It was clear from a long time ago that the testing being done by the Health authorities was woefully inadequate. But I haven't seen nor heard any real or sustained criticism of this fact from anybody in the mainstream media. I haven't seen or heard any reporter hold the Minister of Health's feet to the proverbial fire on this very crucial matter of testing. Why? This is our lives that are being played with!  And why do I say 'sustained'? Because this point (as well as others) needs to be hammered home.

Even now, testing at various private institutions while available, is horribly expensive and out of reach of the pockets of the average man. Yet nobody has seen fit to ask Mr. Deyalsingh why? And also, what is he doing about it? In any case, the test results often take 4 days or more making the testing virtually useless. (As an aside, I would ask do you really believe that Mr. Deyalsingh has told us the whole truth about what is going on? And if your answer is 'no', do you believe that the mainstream media has held him to account?)

What about contact tracing? To my belief there is very little going on. (I say 'belief' because I really don't know; certainly it appears to me that in this regard there is a lot of information missing.) If there is, then how come we are getting this sudden spike? It doesn't make sense.

But CNC3 thought it more important to highlight dissension in the UNC rather than how we as a nation are dealing with this pandemic. The host did say that she would have to call me back to discuss the points that I had raised. You will not be surprised to learn that I expect that invitation around the same time that snow falls in Trinidad.

I could go on, but hopefully you have got the point. These guys and gals are leading us all up the garden path. And the tragedy ... the real tragedy ... is that it is our lives that are being played with.

HAVE WE ASKED THE HARD QUESTIONS?

 

Do you think that the Rowley Government told us the truth about Covid-19 way back in February and March of this year? Do you think that they have been doing a good job in containing the virus? Do you believe that this "second wave" of Covid reported infections is just that ... a second wave? Do you believe that the Government has done a good job in handling this crisis? Do you think that the mainstream media have reported accurately on the pandemic in T&T?

If you answered 'yes' to any of theses questions then don't bother to read any further because you definitely are not going to agree with anything that I will be saying here. Let's take the first question about the Government telling us the truth: if they were telling us the truth from 'Day One' then why is it that we are seeing such a spike now when the country has been on a virtual lockdown since the 23rd March?  Where are these "new" cases coming from? And if they didn't tell us the truth from the beginning then was there an agenda (winning the elections?)?

And as to the second question, do you remember how they used to boast about what a great job they were doing and how low the numbers of infections were? But they weren't doing any significant testing. In the same period that we had tested a little over 4,000 cases little Grenada had done some 48,000 tests! But some quack organization claiming to be out of Oxford University is reported to have ranked us number one in the world for our handling of the pandemic. How could they say that they were doing a good job when there was very little testing? More importantly, why was there so little testing?

As for the "second wave", did you notice that the reports started coming of an increase in Covid-19 infections literally just before the elections? And now it is obviously out of control. On the one hand the Government's erstwhile Minister of Health is reported as saying that masks are ineffective and on the other hand you have the same Government passing emergency laws fining people for not wearing a mask! Really? And where did this so-called "second wave" come from if the borders were closed? From the illegal Venezuelans? But they come in mainly through Cedros in the South and all the first "new" cases came from the north! What's wrong with this picture?

Do you still think that the Government has done a good job in managing the pandemic? Do you think that children are less likely or more likely to practice social distancing? In this regard then, should the schools be re-opened or should they re-open only with virtual classrooms? What should be done with those poor people who can't afford internet in their homes ... much less laptops! Do you think therefore that the government has shown the required leadership in dealing with this crisis?

And as for the mainstream media, do you think that they were "asleep at the wheel" in their reporting ... or lack of it? Or did they have an agenda which was (and still is) not to criticize the Government or make it look bad.

The election is over, but we are not going to get out of this obvious mess anytime soon if we refuse to ask the hard questions or hold the Government's proverbial feet to the proverbial fire.

WHERE IS THIS COVID-19 SPIKE COMING FROM?

 

For a very long time now I have not believed the reporting that T&T was doing well in the battle against COVID-19 despite that Oxford report that said that we were number one in the world in the fight against it. I believed that we were simply not being told the truth about the virus and its spread and that the reality was much worse. I also believed that after the elections there would be a spike.

Well, so far the evidence is that I was right about the spike and it's timing but there has been no evidence that I was right about the other things ... except for my very ugly, dark and (what should be)  unnecessary suspicions. But why should I have had these suspicions? Were/are they unreasonable? Well, you judge for yourself:

First of all, it was clear way back in February that this virus was deadly and dangerous. It was clear that urgent steps ought to be taken to contain it. And yet? Well, the Government in its wisdom allowed Carnival to go on. Was this a wise decision? The reports suggest that it was because there was no discernible spike two weeks later. In fact, when our borders were closed on March 23rd the reported rate of infection was exceedingly low. 

But just recently (literally just before the general elections on August 10th) the number of reported infections started to rise. By the way, it is worth noting that the reported testing during the period March to the end of July was only about 5,000. Little Grenada in the same period had done 48,000 tests! To which any thinking person is bound to ask: why?

Then, when the reports started coming in about persons who actually had the virus the rumours went around that it was being brought in by the illegal Venezuelans. The problem with this theory was that most of these Venezuelans were coming in through the south and all of the cases were being reported in the north. What was wrong with this picture?

Then another rumour/explanation surfaced: that it was the Trinis coming back home that were bringing the virus with them. Hmmm! Possible, but not exactly conclusive. And still did not explain things sufficiently.

So? Where is this spike coming from? Unless, of course, there is no "spike" but simply a belated acknowledgement that the virus is here and totally out of control.

Look, the election is over and for better or worse we're stuck with the results whether you like it or not, or whether or not you believe that there was some fraud in the results. Unless one can come up with definitive proof that there was cheating then we have no choice but to accept the results. This doesn't mean, of course, that there was no cheating. It just means that there is no justiciable evidence  and that the very ugly suspicions that there might have been cheating  have to be put aside ... at least, for the time being. For me, there is little point in debating this particular issue right now. What is a million times more important is how to deal with this COVID crisis. 

My point here is that I believe that this whole COVID business was and is being covered up by the Government. Do I have any proof that it was? None whatsoever! It is just that too many things don't make a whole lot of sense to me ...  they simply don't add up ... and I was always taught that when a man tells you something that you don't understand 97 percent of the time it is because he does NOT WANT you to understand; the remaining 3 percent of the time it is because he is a fool and doesn't understand what he is saying. So? What is it that the Government doesn't want us to know about or understand? Because whatever you might think or want to say about Dr. Rowley and his gang, 'stupid' is not an adjective that you can label them with. This is no longer a question of politics, but a question of life and death. And the last time I looked, death tends to last for a long time!

LEAD, FOLLOW OR GET OUT OF THE WAY

First of all, it must be acknowledged that at the moment there does not seem to be any justiciable evidence that the elections were stolen. The problem here is that there are too many ugly and most unnecessary suspicions floating around that they in fact were! it is a little like trying to prove that I was at your house at midnight last night. I was, but I am going to lie and say that I wasn't. And because you were the only one who saw me there you can't prove it. So, I must be given the benefit of the doubt and get away with my lie.

Look, if you want to believe that this was a fair election then go ahead and believe it. I don't, but I certainly can't prove that it wasn't. There are too many serious allegations floating around. For example, there is a report that in LaHorquetta/Talparo at polling station 2085 (Wallerfield) there were 1,939 polling cards of which 1,371 were white polling cards which are supposedly issued to persons who did not have ID cards. However, the station diaries do not support this. So? Is this report true? Because if it is it points to voter fraud in which the EBC may be complicit. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see how serious this is or could be.

Then we have the allegedly defeated UNC candidate for St. Joseph, Alloy Hunt, making allegations that the recount in his constituency was fraudulently carried out. The problem here is that according to Mr. Hunt there was an agreement with the PNM and the EBC that the recount would take place between the hours of 9am to 5pm. But on the first day of the recount after the UNC representatives left, the EBC together with the PNM representatives then counted a further 4 boxes. And apparently the same thing happened over the next two following days. But no credible explanation has been given by Mr. Hunt or his team as to why, after this alleged fraud or breach of agreement, they continued to trust the EBC and the PNM. Certainly, Mr. Hunt's & Co.'s actions beg incredulity.

So what we have, looking at these two examples (and there are many, many more) is a total mess, with the general population being left hopelessly and helplessly in the dark as to what really happened.

Then we have the rather glaring absence of leadership in the UNC. That party's political leader has been missing in action with others filling in for her. Oh! We have had some press releases in her name, but she has not appeared in public since last Monday night. Now, I've said it before  and I'll say it again: the only test for leadership is to lead, and to lead vigorously. At a time when the followers and supporters of the UNC are understandably upset over the way things have turned out, she has been silent preferring to issue press releases and effectively to hide behind her officials and supporters. 

Mrs. Persad-Bissessar's very hesitancy to appear in public has led to calls from various elements within her own party to step aside. Essentially, these calls can be summed up as follows: lead, follow, or get out of the way. She has so far failed to lead and she certainly isn't following anyone. So that means that she should, for both her party's and her country's sake, get out of the way.

WAS A MASSIVE FRAUD PERPETRATED BY THE EBC ON THE COUNTRY?

 That we are in deep "doo-doo" is clear. The supporters of both sides of the political divide have dug in their heels and are seemingly intent on not just hurling racial epithets and other insults at each other, but are almost (and in some cases actually) promoting violence. The cause of all this is because of the growing perception that the recent election was anything but fair and there was massive cheating involved.

Now, let's get one thing clear: either there was cheating or there was none. It is (forgive the pun) a matter that is clearly black or white. And, especially in political matters, perception is always reality, which means that there has to be absolute confidence by a large majority of voters that the persons entrusted to conduct our elections are indeed impartial.

Those who support the PNM say that there was no cheating whatsoever and that the recounts are showing clearly that even if there were one or two mistakes in the counting, those mistakes do not amount to anything that could or would change the result. They go on to say, in essence, that T&T has always had a proud history of free and fair elections and that nothing has changed; the PNM prides itself on its democratic credentials and is not a racist or racial party. Further, the Elections & Boundaries Commission (EBC) has an impeccable record and there is no evidence to suggest that its record has been tarnished. They also deny vehemently that there was/is any collusion with any officials of the EBC.

Those who support the UNC are saying in essence that there was a massive fraud perpetrated by, and with the help of the EBC, in favour of the PNM and that there is too much circumstantial evidence that points to this to be dismissed lightly. In other words, if it walks like a duck ...!!

The circumstantial evidence that the UNC supporters are referring to is as follows:

(a) discarded poll cards being found dumped;

(b) some of the polling cards have questionable initials that point to the initials of the relevant returning officers being forged;

(c) discrepancies in the voter tallies between what is being reported as the number of votes cast and what was actually cast;

(d) the refusal of Dr. Rowley to produce the alleged letter from the Commonwealth Secretariat saying that it had no money to send election observers when the Secretariat's published accounts show that this was not true;

(e) the very early declaration by Dr. Rowley and his supporters that the PNM had won before the EBC had published its own results;

(f) that the head of the EBC is a family relative to a senior member of the PNM.

(g) that Faris Al-Rawi, the Attorney General in the last administration and the candidate for the San Fernando West constituency,was allegedly seen entering the Marabella office of the EBC shortly after the polls closed at 6 o'clock on Monday evening. This, the UNC people say, is highly suspicious.

That there are answers to some of the above accusations is a given, and that I may have left out some of the other accusations may also be true. But the problem here is best summed up by the old adage 'a man convinced against his will is of the same opinion still'. In other words, the EBC has to prove conclusively to the country a negative, i.e., that it did not collude with the PNM in any way to alter the results. 

It is always more difficult to prove a negative than it is to prove a positive but that this has now become absolutely necessary is most important for the country to move on. If it is not shown clearly and conclusively that there was no cheating then I regret to say that I predict and fear that there will be very serious repercussions that could easily lead to violence. So far, the reporting in the mainstream media does not seem to suggest that the fears of the obviously disgruntled UNC supporters are being dealt with seriously enough and that those fears are being rather lightly dismissed. This is not good. Not good at all!

IS THERE REALLY A DEAD HEAT IN BARATARIA/SAN JUAN?

It is difficult not to get caught up in the politics as we enter these last few days before August 10th if you have even the slightest interest in politics. Certainly, you can't open a newspaper without it hitting you squarely in the face. And here (again) is my central complaint.

Look, I don't know how many times I have to say it: I genuinely don't care what your political, religious or other preferences are. As far as I am concerned, while I reserve my right to disagree with you on anything, I absolutely agree that you have an equal right to disagree with me and we can meet on the battlefield of ideas.

But I do insist that you should not be afraid to declare your bias, especially in circumstances where you are a newspaper and there are readers who are depending on you to report the news accurately. So, when I read this morning's Guardian and saw in big headlines on page 6 "DEAD HEAT IN BARATARIA/SAN JUAN" and again on page 7 "PNM SEEN AS PROBLEM SOLVER" I decided to read the article which was purporting to report on a poll by Louis Bertrand of Hill and Associates. The article together with accompanying tables was most instructive.

First of all, the poll was conducted with only 200 respondents in that constituency which has more than 24,000 registered voters. Okay, you might say, but pollsters have their own methods of extrapolating coming events from relatively small samples. Okay. But everyone knows that this election is going to be heavily charged with racial tensions and that generally speaking if you are African you are voting PNM and if you are Indian you are voting UNC. So in order to be able to assess the polls findings, shouldn't we know exactly how many of the 200 respondents were Indian/African? Because, for example, if 150 of the respondents were Black and only 50 were Indian then I would say that the poll really doesn't show a dead heat but in fact it predicts a UNC victory. Put another way, the report in the Grand Old Lady of St. Vincent Street is missing some key information.

Again, while I am no pollster the published results in the newspaper don't seem to line up with the information in the tables. For example, 29 percent of the interviewees are reported as saying that they think that Saddam Hosein (the UNC candidate) was doing a good job versus only 12 percent thinking the same thing of Jason Williams (the PNM candidate). But 14 percent had an unfavourable opinion of Mr. Hosein versus only 9 percent for Mr. Williams. To which I can only say what?! You do see the obvious dichotomy there, don't you? Then there is a table (table 61) which reports that 40 percent of the respondents think that UNC will do a better job of all the problems that face the constituency than 33 percent who think that PNM will do a better job.

 Then buried in the article is the quote "Race, as a factor in voting intentions, continues to be important in the constituency." What did I just say a little earlier? And then the article goes on to say that 59 percent of Indo-Trinis intend to vote for the UNC versus 9 percent for the PNM. But 66 percent of Afro-Trinis intend to vote for the PNM versus only 6 percent for the UNC.  But all available evidence suggests that PNM supporters are generally more dissatisfied with their party than are the UNC supporters. Certainly, you hear more complaints about the PNM coming from their supporters than you hear from UNC supporters about their party.  So? Is what the poll is saying really true?

You realize, of course, that either there is something wrong with the editor who allowed this report onto the newspaper's pages or there is something wrong with the pollster. Because the published information is simply too full of contradictions to come to the conclusions that there is a dead heat in the constituency or that PNM is seen as a problem solver. No. It just isn't making sense.

But, the headlines make a lot of sense if you realize that most people only read the headlines and you think that the Guardian is trying to prop up the PNM vote. 

                                                       A UNC TSUNAMI?

I have never claimed to be an oracle neither do I claim to have psychic or supernatural powers, but I do pay attention to little things  ... straws in the wind, you might say ... and often question the motives of people who try to convince me that certain things are not what they seem to be. What am I on about? The %^&*#@( newspapers ... again!!

You see, I don't mind if any of the newspapers are biased. I have said it before ... they have every right to have a bias or a preference, but at the very least they ought to tell us that they have a bias. Yesterday (Sunday) all the newspapers led with articles that said that PNM was winning. Well, that was their right, I suppose, but was it necessarily true? If we were to take the Express story, for example, their headline "PNM WINS" hid a rather inconvenient truth buried deep within the article. The pollster was saying words to the effect that his poll was a national poll and did not reflect what was happening on a constituency-by-constituency basis. In other words, while their poll might have reflected an overall majority vote nationally for the PNM it did not necessarily reflect what was happening in the individual seats.

Now, everybody knows that there are 41 seats in the country with 39 in Trinidad and 2 in Tobago. To win an election one party has to get at least 21 of those seats. So? The real question is who is going to win what seat? Put another way, how many seats will PNM get and how many will UNC get? At the moment, PNM has 23 seats and UNC has 18.

So? What is the prediction for August 10th? How many will each party get?

As I see it right now today the UNC is vulnerable in 3 seats. They are

Baratari/San Juan

Chaguanas East

Pointe-a-Pierre

I see the PNM vulnerable in 8 seats. They are

Moruga/Tableland

La Horquetta/Talparo

Toco/Sangre Grande

St. Joseph

Tunapuna 

San Fernando West

Tobago East 

Tobago West

Of the 3 vulnerable UNC seats I believe that Chaguanas East and Pointe-a-Pierre will "hold". Barataria/San Juan is really too close to call, but for the sake of argument only let's give that seat to the PNM. So UNC is 1 down, which leaves them with 17.

Of the 8 vulnerable PNM seats I believe that their only hope in Trinidad of "holding" might be San Fernando West, so let's give them that seat. Of the 2 Tobago seats I believe that both are lost to Watson Duke's party, but let's (for the sake of argument again) give the PNM Tobago West.  So that puts UNC 5 "up" and PNM 6 down. 

In other words, if I am right then UNC goes home with 22 seats, PNM gets 18 seats and Mr. Duke walks away with 1 seat.  Kamla is the next Prime Minister.

Now, why am I going on about the newspapers ... again? Because this is the kind of analysis and reporting that we should be getting from them.  But we're not! They are trying to pretend that things are  going one way when all the evidence suggests something else. That there are certain "safe" seats for both sides is a given. But, oh crikey! Tell us what is happening in the marginals. Because that is where the real battle will be.

Incidentally, there are unconfirmed reports that the ground is shifting in certain PNM seats long considered to be "safe". If that is true (and it is a big "if") we could very well see a UNC tsunami.  Either way, we aren't going to have to wait for too long now.

QUESTIONS TO PONDER ON BEFORE THE ELECTIONS

A little while ago I was watching an American news program on television where a group of journalists were interviewing undecided voters  as to whom they would prefer: Joe Biden or Donald Trump. Bearing in mind that we are in a few days time going to have our own general elections I thought that it might be of some interest to some people if the same questions (with appropriate changes for local conditions) be asked down here. So, here goes:

1.   Who would you rather have as a dinner guest in your home: Kamla Persad-Bissessar or Keith
      Rowley?

2.   Who do you like as a person more: Kamla Persad-Bissessar or Keith Rowley?

3.   Which of the two (Persad-Bissessar or Rowley) do you think is a warmer person?

4.   Which one of them do you think is the more intelligent?

5.   Which one of them do you think is more compassionate, which one cares more for the people?

6.   Which of the two do you think is more genuine or sincere? Who is more honest? Who can you
      trust more?

7.   Is trust an important issue for you? Should it be?

8.   Which of the two do you think is a better manager or has better management capabilities?

9.   What do you think were the three best or biggest achievements or accomplishments of Dr,
      Rowley's 2015 - 2020 regime?

10. What do you think were the three best or biggest achievements or accomplishments of Mrs.
       Persad-Bissessar's 2010-2015 regime?

11.  Do you believe that Delcy Rodriguez came over to T&T to discuss the COVID -19 pandemic or
       do you think that she came here to discuss something else?

12.  If you think that she came to discuss something else, do you believe that what she came to
       discuss had anything to do with that mysterious shipment of 150,000 barrels of gasoline that
       ended up in Venezuela?  If so, do you believe that there is a possibility of T&T being sanctioned
       by the American Government?

13.  Do you believe that we have been told the true state of this country's finances? Put another way,
       do you believe that we are in for a major devaluation after the elections?

14.  Do you believe that we have been told the whole truth about the COVID-19 infections in T&T?

15.  Is this important?

16.  There is a lot of talk about "the One Percent Connection" inside the PNM, i.e., that it is           Syrian/Arab money propping up the PNM with their money pouring into that party's coffers.
        Do you believe this to be true? If so, is it important or unimportant? If you think that it is
        important then why do you think so? If you think that it is unimportant then why do you think
        so?

17.  Are there "money-men" behind the UNC? If so, who do you think they are? Is this important or
       unimportant and why do you think so?

18.   Are you better off today than you were in 2015 or worse off?


Every single question here is being asked openly, i.e., what do YOU honestly think? Obviously you don't have to share your answers with anyone, but speaking only for myself, I was absolutely fascinated with what I considered to be a highly original line of questioning. Certainly, this (line of questioning) made me think a lot. If it does the same to or for you then that would be great.  Because, at the end of the day, it is your opinion and your vote that ultimately matters.