BY ALL THAT IS NORMAL ...

 BY all that is normal, the results of the Tobago House of Assembly (THA) elections were predictable. But this is not a 'normal' country and voting in the country has more to do with race (Africans vote PNM and Indians vote UNC).  By all that is normal Keith Rowley's PNM should have expected to lose in Tobago big time! The not very subtle attempts to bully and/or bribe the electorate didn't work. And the attempt to link the victorious PDP with the Indian dominated UNC also didn't have the desired effect ... though what that rather blatant racial call will do in a general election remains to be seen.

The results simply reflected that the population in Tobago, unencumbered by race (Tobago is more than 90% black) thought about what they wanted and decided that they weren't going to be bribed or coerced into voting for unbridled incompetence. Oh! They will take the bribe money and run with it. Why not? But they had decided to give Watson Duke's PDP a chance.

Now, both the PNM and the UNC will try to put their own spins on it. But losing is often more important than winning and the PNM will not merely go into a corner and lick it's wounds, but it will spend a lot of time analyzing where it went wrong. The UNC will interpret the results as being that the population is fed up and their (the UNC's) return to power is all but guaranteed.  

If the UNC thinks that it will be making a big mistake. Trinidad, with it's 39 seats, is not Tobago with it's 2 seats, and they will be discounting Watson Duke who could well end up winning the 2 Tobago seats and holding the balance of power. If that happens, look for more political maneuverings downstream. 

Both sides will try subtly (and not so subtly) to play the race card. The PNM has generally been more successful in playing this card than the UNC, but that is no guarantee that the UNC can't learn. What is clear, as I have said, is that it is a whole new ball game and a lot will depend on how both sides deal with Mr. Duke. Because, if they are not careful the news will read "Prime Minister Watson Duke said today ... ..." And don't think that it can't happen or that it hasn't crossed Mr. Duke's mind. He is certainly p[roving himself to be cleverer than either Kamla or Rowley.