COVID 19 - IS THE END IN SIGHT?

 EVERYONE KNOWS  where I got my medical degree from and what an expert I am in all things relating to medicine and health. ( Hint: its the same place where the Health Minister got his medical degree and scientific knowledge and scientific expertise from!) So, armed with this great knowledge and expertise I have been thinking about this Covid pandemic and how we have been dealing with it so far. To make a long story short, I have been looking at early 20th century history and in particular at the Spanish Flu epidemic that took place around 1920 and lasted for two to three years. 

My reading and my studies (don't laugh: remember that I went to the same place that Minister Deyalsingh got his qualifications  from) have suggested to me that the Spanish Flu was an epidemic that was very similar in every way to the present Covid 19 pandemic. About 50 million people died or were infected by that virus which raged around the world (well, Europe and North America at least) for about three years before eventually dying out.  It seems that the Flu (which actually started in the United States and NOT Spain) started to become less and less severe before eventually becoming nothing more than a serious cold and disappearing from our radars for the last hundred years or so. 

My reading (and please remember my medical qualifications  and expertise when you read this) is that the world probably achieved herd immunity and at the same time the mutating virus became less and less severe and therefore less and less dangerous.  If I am right then it would seem that we are entering now the final stage of this pandemic and that by next Christmas we should more or less be out of the woods, for we already know that the Omricon variant is less dangerous than the Delta variant. If this trend continues then we are indeed nearing the end.

I have not discussed this with my fellow expert (the Minister of Health) but I am fairly certain that if I am right he will not only agree with me but claim credit for the ending of the pandemic.  Speaking for myself, I couldn't care less whether he agrees with me or not. I just want this thing to be over as soon as possible.  (If I turn out to be wrong, then Mr. Deyalsingh will no doubt tell everybody why you shouldn't listen to me - and he'd be right!) So until we know one way or the other just stay safe and get yourself vaccinated. WE are on the planet for only a very short while, but we stay dead for a llooonnnggg time!!

Merry Christmas, everybody.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

 

A lot of people (including my wife) will be pleased with the announcement that the beaches will now be open from 5am to noon every day. But the question arises: what has changed? Is it that it was never dangerous to open the beaches? Or is it that the situation is more under control than it was before? Or is it that it was never dangerous to open the beaches but the Government wanted to appear as if it was doing something and was taking this pandemic seriously? Or is it something else? What?

I have argued for a long time that we simply haven't been told the truth about this pandemic or anything associated with it. I defy anybody to answer the question raised here with an answer  based on evidence and absolute knowledge. Because if yesterday it was dangerous to open the beaches then why is it not dangerous today? And if the argument is that it is only a limited opening, then why was it dangerous to have this limited opening yesterday and not today? 

There are too many unanswered questions that lead the casual observer to come to one of three conclusions: the first is that the Minister of Health and his minions really don't have a clue as to what they are doing and are operating more by 'vaps' than from the science; or secondly that they have been lying to us; or thirdly, a combination of the first two.

The problem is that the matter is far too serious to allow these guys to operate and not know what they are doing. We rely on them to be up to date on everything to do with this pandemic and also to know what to do. we aren't that stupid and we do understand that bright minds abroad in the big countries are also struggling with the virus. But that does not mean we can't or shouldn't be told the truth, no matter how bitter it might be. And my complaint in one sentence is that we haven't been told the truth - or at least, not the whole truth.

And that is the beginning and the end of the whole story. the question: do these guys know what they are doing is answered by the first question. Unfortunately, there is too much evidence (whether circumstantial or not) that suggests to the reasonable observer that they don't know what they are doing.

I was taught that if you van't say something in one sentence then you can't say it at all. So, in one sentence, what has changed to allow the Government to open the beaches? In one sentence!

REALLY LOOKING HARD AT THOSE THA RESULTS

 Everybody (well almost everybody) is quite pleased with the drubbing that the PDP gave to the PNM in the recent Tobago House of Assembly (THA) elections. And most people are pleased that young (he's 36) Farley Augustine has become the new boss of the THA (his correct title is Chief Secretary).

But it is probably a safe bet that nobody has really thought past the fact that  "the new broom" has come in with promises to stop the t'iefing and to make things more efficient.  Pay attention: in the 2021/2022 Budget debate in September last the PNM government allocated the record amount of $60 billion for the THA. So everybody thinks that Farley will have some nice dollars to spend. They would be wrong! He won't have a cent unless and until it lands in the THA bank account. Personally, I expect Colm to give him just enough to run his show, but no more than that!

An allocation in the budget is just that: an allocation. It doesn't mean a thing until the money actually is transferred. So although in theory Mr. Augustine will have a lot of money at his disposal, in practice he will have nothing unless that which the erstwhile Finance Minister gives him. And do you think that Colm will be generous or will he cry poverty?

And don't forget about the boats ... and the planes. Even at the best of times the ferries were breaking down.  Do you think that theses ferries (under the control of the PNM) will be better maintained than they were before? do you expect that the planes to Tobago will also be properly maintained? 

No. It is not unreasonable to think that  a vindictive PNM government will turn the screws (not so softly) on Tobago and that it will take  all of Mr. Augustine's ingenuity to try and keep his boat (pardon the pun) afloat. 

The Opposition will have to ask questions and put the pressure on in Port of Spain, but they don't have a lot in this particular affair. They can't expect to win in Tobago and without the PDP offering them something there won't be much for them to be motivated to help in any way. Frankly, it looks like Farley is on his own here. All right thinking souls will wish him luck because it will mean that the people (of Tobago) will win. But, honestly, knowing how things really work it looks to be most unlikely that the people of Tobago are going to get any real relief any time soon. I'll be the first to sing 'thank God I was wrong'! But I genuinely fear that I am not.

BY ALL THAT IS NORMAL ...

 BY all that is normal, the results of the Tobago House of Assembly (THA) elections were predictable. But this is not a 'normal' country and voting in the country has more to do with race (Africans vote PNM and Indians vote UNC).  By all that is normal Keith Rowley's PNM should have expected to lose in Tobago big time! The not very subtle attempts to bully and/or bribe the electorate didn't work. And the attempt to link the victorious PDP with the Indian dominated UNC also didn't have the desired effect ... though what that rather blatant racial call will do in a general election remains to be seen.

The results simply reflected that the population in Tobago, unencumbered by race (Tobago is more than 90% black) thought about what they wanted and decided that they weren't going to be bribed or coerced into voting for unbridled incompetence. Oh! They will take the bribe money and run with it. Why not? But they had decided to give Watson Duke's PDP a chance.

Now, both the PNM and the UNC will try to put their own spins on it. But losing is often more important than winning and the PNM will not merely go into a corner and lick it's wounds, but it will spend a lot of time analyzing where it went wrong. The UNC will interpret the results as being that the population is fed up and their (the UNC's) return to power is all but guaranteed.  

If the UNC thinks that it will be making a big mistake. Trinidad, with it's 39 seats, is not Tobago with it's 2 seats, and they will be discounting Watson Duke who could well end up winning the 2 Tobago seats and holding the balance of power. If that happens, look for more political maneuverings downstream. 

Both sides will try subtly (and not so subtly) to play the race card. The PNM has generally been more successful in playing this card than the UNC, but that is no guarantee that the UNC can't learn. What is clear, as I have said, is that it is a whole new ball game and a lot will depend on how both sides deal with Mr. Duke. Because, if they are not careful the news will read "Prime Minister Watson Duke said today ... ..." And don't think that it can't happen or that it hasn't crossed Mr. Duke's mind. He is certainly p[roving himself to be cleverer than either Kamla or Rowley.