THE SHARMA/RAMADARSINGH DEBACLES AND BEYOND

With the Sharma/Ramadarsingh debacles behind us we can probably expect all sorts of commentary both in social media as well as in the Sunday newspapers in support of the Government and the Prime Minister's handling of the two debacles as well as scathing criticisms of the Prime Minister, her management style, and of the two protagonists ... all of which are (or will be) fairly predictable. As a society we seem to be incapable of original thought and of any meaningful capability of not only analyzing a particular situation but of setting out a plan of where we are, where we need to be and (perhaps most importantly) the best way of getting there.

Let me give you an example of what I mean: on both Tuesday and Wednesday of this week Senator Faris Al-Rawi, the PNM's erstwhile Public Relations Officer spent a total of about one hour ( a half hour on CNC 3 on Tuesday and another half hour on TV 6 on Wednesday) criticizing the government, the Prime Minister and the two errant/fallen Ministers. I listened carefully to both interviews in the hope that I would hear something different. My own view was that the discussion of the very obvious mistakes made by all in the two debacles ought not to have taken more than, say, about ten minutes or so in each interview. What I would have found to be much more interesting and more important, was what the PNM thought could and should be done to eliminate, or, at the very least, reduce violence towards women. I am a father of three girls. I have a wife whom I love very much, and I have a mother and a sister. (And in case there are any wags out there, yes, I love my daughters and my mother and my sister as well). I am acutely aware of certain ... shall we say ... "unfortunate" attitudes towards women that seem to prevail in our society, and I condemn them roundly.

But all we seem to get from our leaders is a lot of rhetoric and nothing else. For example, I would have been far more impressed with Senator Al-Rawi's performances on the two television programs this week if he had (after taking the understandable and obligatory swipes at the Government) had said something to the effect like "The PNM strongly condemns violence against women in any form whatsoever. Further, when we regain political power we intend to do the following ....", and then list out the Party's proposals. "Further," he could have said, "let me make it clear: if any of our people are guilty of violence against women they will be expelled forthwith from the Party."

Now, I don't mean that he had to use those exact words. What I mean is that I would have liked to have hard concrete proposals as to what a major political party that hopes to form the next Government of this country would do about a serious problem that plagues our society. Violence against women, unfortunately, is not confined in our society only to UNC front line politicians but goes across all races, creeds and political loyalties.

I suppose that what I am really complaining about is that in our society we tend to allow our politicians a free pass where we accept their criticisms of the other side but we do not insist on them spelling out their own philosophies and policies in any meaningful way. Perhaps some blame for this can be laid at the feet of the media. Perhaps some blame for this can also be laid at the feet of the politicians themselves. But the sad truth is that the majority of the blame must lie with ourselves. We continue to complain but do nothing about it. We do not insist on either philosophical or political debates, but prefer instead to listen (with a certain relish) to allegations of 'who t'ief what'! While accepting absolutely that the question of 'thievery' is important, my own view is that 'thievery' is a by-product of an amoral society that refuses to confront the real problems that exist, choosing instead to indulge in high sounding rhetoric that, at the end of the day, means absolutely nothing.

                            DON'T SAY THAT YOU WEREN'T WARNED!!!!

The picture above was taken of an opposition march in Caracas on Friday. As you can see, the streets are jammed with about fifty thousand people. Now, that's a heck of a lot of people!! And when a march like this and of this size takes place in a major metropolis like Caracas you can bet that just about the whole city is effectively shut down. The problem here is that this isn't a 'one-off' thing, but is something that is being repeated every week, several times a week all over Venezuela. Put another way, Venezuela is grinding to a halt ... if it has not already ground to a halt. There are now basic shortages of just about everything ... except, it seems, Cubans and armed thugs who are shooting at persons who are protesting against the Government.

I deliberately put this picture on this post as I know that a lot of people are simply not aware of the depth of unhappiness that exists in Venezuela. The pro-Maduro supporters like to try and paint the opposition as being only the wealthy. In my experience, the wealthy do not demonstrate ... and certainly not in numbers like this!! Look at the picture again!

The situation clearly cannot last much longer. Maduro is pulling out all of the stops and trying his best to prevent the bad news from getting out of the country. In this regard, if truth be told, he has been moderately successful as the major news agencies seem to be steering away from reporting everything that is going on, especially where the reports make Maduro's Government look bad. Certainly, pictures like this are not being broadcast, and, if they are, only once in a while.

But the reality is that things are bad ... very, very bad! The fact is that things like toilet paper and women's sanitary pads (for example) are now in very short supply. Foreign exchange is in even shorter supply  ... and this is for a country that is sitting on one of the largest oil reserves in the world, and press freedom is virtually non-existent. (As an aside, isn't it interesting that all those persons who cry about infringements of press freedom here in T&T appear to be blissfully unaware of what Maduro is doing to their brothers and sisters across the water?)

On Friday Trinidad & Tobago assisted the Maduro regime in keeping a lid on things when it voted to have a debate in the Organisation of American States (OAS) held in private. What had happened was that the President of Panama had appointed a leading Venezuelan politician, Maria Corina Machado, as special ambassador to the OAS for Panama in order to inform the OAS about what was taking place in Venezuela. The representative of the left wing regime of Nicaragua moved a motion that the debate should be held in private ... in other words, away from the prying eyes of the world's press and the public. And, with the support of all those little islands who are benefiting from Chavez's PetroCaribe initiative ... as well as the inexplicable support of Trinidad & Tobago ... the motion to hold the debate in private was passed!! Why? I honestly have no idea. The only reasons that I can come up with are probably libelous. But nothing else makes sense. Certainly, T&T's vote doesn't make any sense to me! It was the WRONG thing to do and I am extremely critical of the Government of my country for this foreign policy mistake.(What could Dookeran have been thinking? But this is not the point of this post. I'll deal with this another time.)

Incidentally, Ms. Machado was detained for several hours when she returned from Washington over the weekend. Why? But in "free" Venezuela these things apparently happen with nobody questioning the authorities.

In the meantime, the average person in Venezuela is seeing his standard of living slipping into a bottomless pit of misery. Everything seems to be breaking down and shortages increase daily. Inflation is now running at almost 60 per cent. Foreign exchange is in such short supply that although the officail rate of exchange is around 11 bolivars to US$1 the black market rate is now around 80 bolivars to US$1 !!!! Can you believe that?!? And this is happening to one of the potentially most wealthy countries in the world!! But this "Bolivarian" (whatever that means ... poor Simon Bolivar. He must be turning in his grave over the hijacking of his name by these people) socialist regime trumpets loudly that they are doing everything for the benefit of the people. And the poor people are benefiting in much the same way as the mobs in ancient Rome benefited from the largesse of the Roman dictators ... bread and circuses!  And nobody says 'boo'. It seems that it is okay to hand out 'bread and circuses' if you are ... well, let's just say 'politically correct'! How you screw up a wealthy country is totally irrelevant!!

One by one, airlines are beginning to refuse to travel to Venezuela. They are reportedly owed a total of more than US$3 billion in unpatrioted airline fees. Maduro has blustered that anyone who pulls out now will not be allowed back. Air Canada has said to heck with that. We can't afford to take a loss here and has cancelled its 3 flights a week. I suppose that is not too great a loss for them. It will be interesting to see what other international carriers do.

Venezuela is falling off the proverbial cliff...  if it hasn't fallen already! This situation cannot last much longer and the Cubans will see to it that however it ends, it will end with a lot of bloodshed. The cowardice of the OAS, the cowardice of the regional Governments and the cowardice of the international press is helping to contribute to a situation where approximately 27 million people (the population of Venezuela) are being repressed ruthlessly.

There is a lot at stake here. Cuba cannot afford to lose Venezuela. If the revolution against Maduro and the Cubans  in Venezuela is successful, the Cuban economy will take another sharp downward turn as the new regime will cut off the supply of free oil that is keeping Cuba going. In other words, Cuba has too much to lose to allow the Venezuelans alone to handle their own affairs. Cuba's control of Venezuela's secret police is now complete. Expect to see a lot of blood flowing ... and soon. Don't say that you weren't warned. And don't hesitate either to point the finger of blame at the Cubans and at Maduro and his band of thugs ... however this ends.

                        ARROGANCE, OVERCONFIDENCE, PRIDE ... AND PREJUDICE



When the news broke that a baby had died from what was reported as a botched caesarian operation, like most people I was absolutely horrified and full of empathy for the mother and father. How could this possibly have happened? From the way that it was reported it sounded very much like a case of terrible medical negligence that seemed to border almost on criminality of some sort. That is, the way that it was reported.

Subsequent newspaper reports have continued along these lines and have gone on to suggest a cover-up of some sort as the doctors and the rest of the medical fraternity circle the wagons to prevent one of their own from being punished appropriately. Again, like, I suspect, most people, I was more than a little upset by this.

So when this last weekend I met someone whom I have known for a long time and who was involved on the periphery of that unfortunate incident I was anxious to ask about it and get some details that up to now have not been published in the press. According to my source, at the time that she went into labour, the young mother's blood pressure went sky-rocketing through the roof. When it was realized that her blood pressure was way too high and that death could result from allowing a normal birth to continue the baby had already become engaged in the birth canal. At the time, the only available on duty doctor was someone who had only recently qualified and who had never done a 'C-section' alone. In other words, the young doctor had little or no experience and certainly not enough experience for an emergency such as this one which had developed most suddenly and unexpectedly.

Well, the rest is history and the baby is dead ... though the mother is alive! There is no doubt that an enquiry will look into everything and that the facts should come out sooner or later. But the operative word in that last sentence is "should".

And this is the point about this particular post. The Trinidad & Tobago media ... both the print as well as the electronic... very often do not report all of the facts, but report in ways to make a story seem more salacious and "newsworthy". A lot more newspapers will sell if the story is a gory one about some slipshod doctor killing a baby in a botched 'C-section' than a story about a baby dying in an emergency operation where the doctor was fighting to save both the life of the mother as well as the life of the child and time was of the most critical essence!! Put another way, assuming that the report that was given to me is in fact correct, then this would put a completely different slant on the whole very sad story. And while I will readily admit that I cannot vouch completely for its veracity, my source is one whom I have learned to trust over several years. In other words, I believe that what I am reporting is in fact true.

Put another way again, past experience with the media has taught me that they are more interested in selling a story than in the truth ... and all I can say is: isn't that a very sad perception to have?

The three daily newspapers, the main television stations and not a few of the radio stations have become rich and powerful. There success has given rise to arrogance, overconfidence, pride ... and prejudice!! One almost prays for them to fail, not because it would be nice to see them fall flat on their smug faces, but because failure usually produces humility, caution and a willingness to learn. Failure usually makes a person more empathetic ... and Heaven knows that we need a lot more empathy in this society! Failure tends to produce humility, caution and a willingness to learn. But the arrogance in the society is not confined just to the media; it permeates its entire fabric. The people at the top in the business community, the bankers,  the politicians on both sides of the political divide, and just about everybody else at the top display a terrible lack of empathy and total arrogance, pride, overconfidence ... and prejudice.There is no humility and no demonstrable willingness to learn.

Understandably, a person will want to focus on what makes him or her feel good. The greatest benefit, though, comes from taking a good hard and honest look at ourselves and our most pressing problems. What isn't working? What can be done to make it work? It takes courage to ask such questions, but they do help to come up with fresh answers that inspire and uplift. And that is what is needed now!

WHEN YOUR NEIGHBOUR'S HOUSE IS ON FIRE ...

We all know the old adage about wetting your house when your neighbour's house is on fire. But here in happy old T&T we are simply not paying any attention whatsoever to what is happening a few kilometers to the west of us in Venezuela. There are no reports in our local press about what is happening and nobody seems to be paying attention to the looming disaster next door to our shores. On Wednesday (12th February) there were deadly clashes in Caracas when three people were killed. The killings followed a huge peaceful demonstration of more than ten thousand people who took to the streets to protest the economic policies of President Nicholas Maduro and the hardships that the people are enduring as a result.

Right now in Venezuela there are shortages of just about everything ranging from toothpaste and milk to toilet paper. Can you imagine that?! Toilet paper is now hard to come by in the country with  some of the largest oil reserves in the world! How many times a day do you use toilet paper? Seriously. Think about it. Think about, for example, being in a public place (e.g., the airport) and having to go only to find that there is no toilet paper! Do you think that that would be uncomfortable?!? I am sorry to sound so crude, but this is a reality that millions of Venezuelans are having to deal with on a daily basis!

The real reason for these shortages is because there is a tremendous shortage of foreign exchange. Businesses and manufacturers simply can't get enough hard currency to import anything and businesses and factories are shutting down on an almost daily basis. The Venezuelan bolivar is practically worthless ... nobody wants it ... and trades on the black market at more than ten times its official value. Corruption is everywhere. Indeed, I have heard stories that certain high up persons in Maduro's administration are taking the hard currency (US dollars) earned by state owned PDVSA (the Venezuelan equivalent of Petrotrin) and putting an amount in bolivars into PDVSA's bank account at the official rate. They then sell enough dollars at the black market rate to meet this expenditure and then bank the rest outside! We are talking of billions here ... not millions ... being siphoned off. And officially, no money is missing as the correct amount of bolivars are in the company's account. It's just that the US dollars just aren't going into the country but are staying offshore.Neat, eh?

In the meantime, the Cubans continue to suck Venezuela dry. Maduro is continuing the policies of his predecessor, the late Hugo Chavez, and supplying Cuba with virtually free oil. Cuba pays Venezuela back with some doctors and nurses and ... more ominously ... "advisers" on national security. With one of the highest murder rates in the world guess what these security "advisers" are really doing? I'll give you three guesses and the first two don't count! If you guessed that they are helping Maduro turn Venezuela into a police state a la Cuba you would be absolutely right!! And Cuba has one of the most ruthless police systems in the world. The Castros are NOT nice people.

Maduro is trying hard to deflect the harsh realities of economics and the problems that ordinary people are facing in Venezuela. He blames the shortages on "saboteurs" and "profit-hungry corrupt businessmen". Sound familiar? In December he tried to curry favour with the proletariat  by ordering the importers and retailers of electronic goods (televisions, computers, etc.) to drop their prices radically and sell their goods at state decreed prices. Naturally, there was a rush to buy. But what had really happened? In an effort to stay in business the businessmen had bought dollars in the black market at a rate of something like seventy bolivars to one dollar when the official rate was only around six to one. Obviously, in order to make a profit (what other reason is there to be in business?) the prices of these electronic goods were marked up at the black market rate. By forcing the businesses to slash their prices Maduro effectively bankrupted them. Now, the only importers of electronic goods in Venezuela are those few who have an "in" with the right people and can get enough foreign exchange at the official rate to buy their goods.

As for Wednesday's demonstrations, it seems that certain masked persons on motorcycles in full view of the police (and, yes, that is true ... I have seen photographs taken by friends of mine at the demonstration) opened fire on the crowd!! And nobody has been arrested!!

Maduro will not last. That is clear. He can and will hold on, probably for another year to eighteen months, possibly less. But he is not going to be able to hold on for much longer. And the Cuban tactics of ruthless repression will not work in Venezuela. Unlike their Cuban counterparts, Venezuelans have enjoyed the good life in the not too distant past, and they know what it is to have free access to the internet (for example). Maduro is cracking down on the media in Venezuela and has effectively muzzled them, but Venezuelans have as many cell phones as the country has  people and text messages, Facebook, What's App, Twitter and other social media are being used all the time by everybody. How do you think, for example, that I got all this information? Nobody bothers any more with the television news or what the state controlled newspapers print.

The tragedy is that Maduro, like most despots, doesn't give a fig for the people that he purports to represent. All he cares about is that he stays in power. To this end he will lie, cheat, and even resort to murder to keep power. He is a terrible blight on the face of Latin America and a destroyer of what was arguably the most beautiful country in South America. Trouble is coming in Venezuela. You can see it; you can taste it; you can feel it. And when it does eventually come a lot of Venezuelans are going to die.

                                         
                                                    THE LOST GENERATIONS


Nobody can look at the state of our country and be happy. Everything seems to be falling apart. The recent Petrotrin oil spills, the soaring crime/murder rate, the drug busts with no "Mr. Big's" being caught ... the list goes on. Critics of the present Government like to say that it is all the Government's fault, but this simply can't be true. For example, assuming (though certainly not accepting) that the OWTU report on the oil spills is accurate, especially about the part where there was an October 2010 report that the offending pipeline was rotten and in dire need of repair, this would mean that the then PNM administration under Malcolm Jones of Petrotrin had not done the necessary maintenance. This does not take away blame from the Gillette administration of Petrotrin but adds to the list of those who ought to be blamed ... if the OWTU report is true!

In other words, if we take all the criticisms of the present administration as being the gospel truth we can easily find that these criticisms all apply (mutatis mutandis) to the last administration as well. Am I saying that this is all right then? Not at all! In fact, what I am trying to say is that I am not particularly interested in allocating blame to anybody. What I am trying to say is that we should spend a lot more time looking for solutions rather than saying "it's your fault" ... whoever "you" might happen to be.

I also realize that the problems in the country are generational. In other words, to a very large extent there is no hope of changing attitudes now for the present generation, much less the one immediately preceding. It might even be too late for the next generation coming up. But it is certainly not too late for the one after that.

Let me give you an example of what I mean: I have two daughters who are married and live in Australia. Daughter no.1 has two children and Daughter no. 2 has one. To make a long story very short my wife, our two sons and I made the long trek to Australia for Christmas to see my children and grandchildren ... and, yes, thank you, we had a great time. But the point here is that one day we were all having lunch in a very casual restaurant (something along the lines of, say, our TGI Fridays or Trotters) and I heard the manageress say to one of the waitresses in the softest of tones "Cynthia, if you don't want to be nice to the customers you can leave. You don't have to stay."  In other words, behave yourself, be polite or get out. The waitress immediately apologized and assured her boss that she would be nice. 'Service' is an important and very key word 'down under'. And it works! The country runs ... and runs well! I could not imagine those words being said here, much less the offending waiter/waitress scurrying off to change his/her attitude immediately. What I would expect here is an increased amount of surliness and downright rudeness.
 I don't have to tell you what kind of "service" we all have to put up with on a daily basis.'Service' in this country is a dirty word.  But why? What has gone wrong? Why don't we work? Why do we accept it with a shrug and say "well, this is Trinidad (or Tobago)?"  Seriously, why?

The problems that we have cannot be fixed overnight. They will take at least one generation to fix. Attitudes have to be changed.  And we have to start in the schools with the very young ones and come up. We have to start giving our young children the tools that they will need to become useful and productive citizens. Right now we are not doing that and the result is that a lot of very bright young people are being born into situations where there is no way out except through joining a gang and living a life of crime. If we continue to bury our heads in the sand the situation will only get worse ... and believe me, it can get worse than this. Try going over to Caracas right now and see what a real crime rate is like!!

But we can stop it. Honestly, we really can. But we need to start thinking differently. I think that the present National Security Minister seems to have his head screwed on right and seems to know what he is talking about. But he is like the little Dutch boy with his finger in the dam.The pressure building up behind his efforts is enormous and his task is not dissimilar to that of Hercules who had to clean out the Augean stables. And good as he is, I don't think that there exists any person in this country (or anywhere else for that matter) who has the powers of the mythical Hercules.

It is either that we start to think "out of the box" or we give up, declare a dictatorship, put all the criminals against a wall and shoot them. That will certainly fix the crime problem. Whether we will be happy with the other problems and the consequences that such a course of action would create is, of course, a whole other story!

$20 PER HOUR MINIMUM WAGE ... AN IGNORED MESSAGE

Jack Warner's call for a minimum wage of $20 per hour has largely gone unnoticed amidst all the hype and hyperbole of the election campaign. The fact that his call has been ignored either means that persons who should understand economics clearly don't, or that they have an agenda which effectively prohibits a discussion of what ought to be important economic issues except for those which those "experts" deem to be important. I will readily admit that there may be a third or even a fourth reason for the deafening silence, but for the life of me I can't think of one.

Mr. Warner's call for a higher minimum wage was/is a recognition that there is what might be called a "fairness deficit" in our society where the rich are getting richer and where more and more people ... especially the young ... are slipping backwards into poverty. Certainly, inflation has seen to it that in real terms most incomes ... especially at the lower end of the scale ... are effectively lower than they were a short ten or fifteen years ago. Most young people cannot afford the lifestyle that their parents had when they were their age.

Social mobility, which progressed in leaps and bounds in the sixties and seventies and even into the eighties is now "flat lining" and is in serious danger of going into reverse. Why are we so surprised at the rising rates in crime when we are effectively throwing so many young people on to the rubbish heap of life by failing to provide them with a good education, good job opportunities and the hope of a better and improved life style.

UWI, UTT and the employer class must all do more to help end long term youth unemployment by increasing learning and earning opportunities. No Government can do it alone. That is the reality. But a Government can and should provide the right business climate where these things happen. Employers, for example, can and should provide better pay, better opportunities, better training and career development. The universities should provide increased higher quality learning and earning opportunities for the young who should be expected to take up those opportunities or face the tough consequences.

The education system needs to be revised where the brighter children are helped and encouraged to do better. There should be a system of reward for those better teachers as well as consequences for those inefficient or incompetent teachers who for whatever reason simply aren't teaching their charges.

Upward social mobility ought to be our mantra. Mr. Warner's call for a higher minimum wage was an implicit recognition that poverty is becoming entrenched into our society. It was a recognition that there is a growing insecurity and a stalling mobility in our society that is far more widespread than has been recognized by our politicians and business leaders. The reality is that there are too many children in our society that are growing up who will have a lower living standard than that enjoyed by their parents. The nature of poverty has changed, and we as a society have failed to understand this.

We are not a fair society. We need to redouble our efforts to reduce our country's "fairness deficit". We are rapidly slipping back into becoming the kind of society we were before 1956 where one's birth determined one's fate. Mr. Warner's call for a $20 per hour minimum wage is an effort to try and create a more level playing field of opportunity. This lies at the core of what our nation's business ought to be. And instead of shooting the messenger it would be really nice if we started to pay attention to the message.

THE COMING TSUNAMI

The assumption in many media boardrooms in Port of Spain is that the Independent Liberal Party (ILP) and Jack Warner will simply fade away. They argue that Mr. Warner simply cannot sustain the effort that is being made now and that this society in any case is a "twenty four hour" society which quickly forgets yesterday's news. And, they argue, the ILP is quickly becoming yesterday's news.

They argue that even if the ILP makes inroads in the upcoming Local Government elections that the electorate will revert back to tribal voting when the bell rings for general elections. They say that even if the ILP does well now that this victory will simply bring home to the tribes on both sides of the political divide that voting for the ILP could very well destroy the PNM/UNC as their vote will simply allow the UNC/PNM  to win ... and that would be a tragedy!!

What the "intelligentsia" (for want of a better word) is failing to understand is that what we are seeing on the ground is that the ILP is appealing strongly to "younger" voters, i.e., those under 50. What we are finding is that it is very hard to convince the older voters (over 50) who are "PNM/UNC till ah dead!" These older folk are stuck in their ruts and no amount of logic can get them out. The best that one can hope for when discussing politics with them is "well, I'll think about it", which really means "you haven't changed my thinking but I have no logical or reasonable arguments to rebut yours, so I'll just keep quiet for now."

The younger voters, on the other hand, are resonating with and responding to the ILP's main message which, in one word, is performance. They are saying to us in every corner of Trinidad (sorry, I haven't been to Tobago as yet) from Sangre Grande to Point Fortin, from Port of Spain to Mayaro and everywhere in between, that they are fed up with tribal voting and that they see Mr. Warner as a performer and a man who has risen above the racial divide. They see him as a twenty-first century man who can and will demand that his team performs ... that they work!!

The message that the ILP has been getting loud and clear from the people is that they are fed up with fancy words and empty promises. They couldn't care less about race. What they care about is that whomsoever they put to do a job actually does the job. They are tired of the "blame game". They want action.

And they couldn't care less about the allegations that have swirled around Mr. Warner's head for the last 12 or so years. Their attitude is that there has been more than enough time to charge him. And the fact that no charges have ever been laid speaks more loudly for them  than the cries of Mr. Warner's opponents who seem to want to say anything to bring him down.

But you know what? If ILP does only one thing for this country it has done so already, i.e., it has made the other two parties (I simply don't count the COP) wake up and smell the coffee. Our information is that they are beginning to listen to the people ... finally!!

There is an awakening taking place ... a not-so-quiet revolution ... a tsunami in our politics. We are on the verge of really becoming a twenty-first century society where the colour of a man's skin or the texture of his hair really counts for nothing and what really counts ... what is in his heart ... is everything!! But isn't that what we all really have wanted?!?!

OF SWALLOWS AND SUMMERS

One of the advantages of growing up in San Fernando was learning that Port of Spain was no more representative of how the country thinks and feels than London is typical of England or Paris representative of all things French. Oh! Our capitol city is important in the overall scheme of things and the views held by those in the capitol often have an inordinate sway over opinions that predominate in the print and electronic media. But those who live in Port of Spain frequently have no idea of what things are really like outside of the city and its environs, nor do they have any real idea of the problems that ordinary people face who live outside.

This lack of knowledge frequently is reflected in the print and electronic media, and one often reads social and political commentaries from persons who are intimately familiar with the boardrooms of the banks and wealthy conglomerates, but have no connection whatsoever with the ordinary person. Because they are influential when it comes to the business of money, they believe that their views and opinions are made of gold and precious stones, even when they are badly misinformed. In addition, the media is dominated by vested interests and 'Status Quos' that have absolutely no desire to see any type of change that does not benefit them. (I read somewhere once that the slightest suggestion of change always means death to some status quo).

I am saying all this because I read an article in one of the dailies recently (i think that it was in the 'Express') where the would-be pundit and commentator opined that "one swallow does not a summer make" and basically said (my words) that Jack Warner's victory in Chaguanas West was very likely a flash in the pan and not likely to be repeated. The man took a whole article to say just that!

My answer to the commentator (and to anybody and everybody else who wants to question the ILP's popularity) is don't take my word for it. Get off your tails and go into the country as we have been doing and meet the people. Ask them what they think. Ask them whether they are happy with the status quo and the tribal voting that has dominated this country's politics from the very beginning. Ask them whether they are prepared to vote tribe again. Go ahead! Ask them!! Because I have been asking them. And what I have been hearing and seeing is very, very different from what I have been readin or hearing on the radio.

For the last ten days I have been travelling all over Trinidad as part of the ILP screening committee. We have been to Sangre Grande, Barrackpore, and just about every where else in between. Yesterday we screened candidates for Port of Spain. This afternoon we are doing San Juan/Laventille and then we will have three more screening sessions for Saturday, Sunday and Monday. The ILP has done something different from the other political parties as regards how it goes about screening its candidates. What we have done is rather than make the people come to us, we have gone to them. The advantage to those who were screened is obvious. But the advantage to the ILP is/was that we got out into the country and were able to get first hand the views, not only of the would-be candidates, but the views of the ordinary men and women living in the areas all over the country. It has been extremely tiring for us and not a little stressful, but it has been worth it.

One of the questions that all would be candidates was asked was why do you want to go up as an ILP candidate. What is most interesting is that every single would-be candidate (and so far we have screened more than 400 persons and have about 200 more to screen) has said that they are fed up; they are fed up with tribal politics; they are fed up with the non-delivery of goods and services; they are fed up with the non-representation that they consistently get (or don't get) from their parliamentary and local government representatives. They are fed up with the fact that although both the PNM and the UNC like to cast stones at each other, they are really no different from each other in terms of their performances in government.

They have also told us that they like Jack Warner's brand, which in one word they say is 'performance'. They admire the fact that Mr. Warner works as hard as he does and obviously cares for the people. They like how he is moving and they want to be part of the movement for change that they see sweeping the country.

That (in a nutshell) is what we are seeing and getting from the ground. A little different from what you are reading in the papers, eh?! Well, don't be too surprised at the results on October 22nd. And remember, you read it here first!!

BURNOUT: THE DISEASE IN T&T POLITICS

One of the things that I have noticed in these past few weeks since becoming re-engaged in active politics is how completely fed-up people of all races, creeds and classes are with all three mainstream political Parties in Trinidad & Tobago. (And, no, I do not count the TOP as a mainstream national Party ... it is strictly a Tobago affair ... but it seems to me from my Trinidadian perspective that people in Tobago are also as fed-up with the TOP and all the rest, as we are in Trinidad.)

The truth is that all of the mainstream Parties have had their chance at governance and none of them has really cured any of the deep rooted and deep seated problems that exist in our society. Time and again they have all gone to the polls and shouted from the roof tops about how corrupt their opponents are (often with a great deal of justification) but as soon as they get into power, except for the names and a few other changes, nothing changed. I defy anybody to show me the real differences in policies and in governance between any of the last few administrations.  Please. Can anybody tell me what are the policy and philosophical  differences between, say, the PNM and the UNC? Or the COP and the PNM? or the UNC and the COP? And don't come to me with platitudes like "better government" or "new politics" or some other essentially meaningless and empty phrases. What exactly are the differences? And don't tell me "well, they are corrupt and we aren't", because the perception in the population as a whole is that all of the Parties are corrupt and effectively condone corruption while pretending to be horrified at the corruption of their political "enemies".. Where are the essential policies and philosophies different? In finance? Education? Health? Security? Where?

The truth is that the differences between the three in terms of policies and philosophies aren't worth a snowball's chance of surviving in hell! Since the elections of 1986 that ushered in the NAR there have been no differences worth mentioning between any of the major Parties. Put another way, for the last 26 or so years we have had a series of different administrations whose only discernible differences have been noticeable solely by race. No new ideas have come forward in decades as to how to fix the myriad problems that afflict us. I have asked the following question in many forms: if I blew up the education/health/ police system this afternoon so that tomorrow morning there was absolutely nothing and we had to build a brand new education/health/police system, would you put back the exact same system or something completely different? And the answer always is that we should put back something completely different! So, the next obvious question is why then,  in the name of Heaven, do we continue tinkering with the systems instead of putting in systems that will work for the benefit of the people? Why are we so surprised that the country is slowly going down the proverbial tubes when no knew ideas are coming forward?

The population is quite understandably completely burnt out. People are coming up to me all the time and saying that "whatever you (i.e., the ILP) do, please, please, please don't bring back any re-cycled politicians". In other words, they are completely fed-up with those persons who have ruled in their name for so long. It is no secret that Jack Warner's extraordinary appeal to the population of the whole country is the fact that he works extremely hard for the people. The attraction of the ILP at the moment to the population as a whole is that they hope and expect that he will make his team work and perform at such levels that the population will benefit. (Let's face it, there aren't many of us who can put in 19 to 20 hour days for 7 days a week! I certainly can't! But I can work hard!)

Put another way, the people are asking that their elected representatives perform; that they do the work that is necessary. I recently posted on Facebook that I joined the ILP because, to me, it gives the best hope for Trinidad & Tobago. I re-entered the political fray after a seven year hiatus because I saw an opportunity to create a new alignment of the ascendant educated young voters, the educated older voters, the minorities in the society, those persons in the society who, while ethnically are either Indian or African, who might be Christian, Hindu, Muslim or any other creed or religion, but all who think of themselves as Trinbagonians first ... and ... (more importantly) last! I want to create an alignment of persons who demand honesty, not just from their elected representatives, but from the powerful unelected elites; elites like the fourth estate (better known as the Press or Media); elites like the business community. (Who is more guilty: the person taking the bribe or the person giving the bribe?)

In other words, I want to help cure the disease that pervades T&T politics. I want to be part of the movement that finally begins to build that "shining city on the hill". That is why I joined with Jack Warner. That is why I am trying to help build  a genuinely new movement whose credo can be summed up in one word: Performance!

MAKING A BETTER COUNTRY

Sometimes I find it difficult not to scoff at the views of learned and respected commentators who, from the absolute safety of their armchairs, pontificate on matters of State and politics as though the words that they commit to print ought to be treated with almost the same reverence as ordinary mortals give to the Holy Koran, Bible or Bhagvad Gita.

The latest offerings from local (as well as Caribbean) commentators is that the Independent Liberal Party (ILP) is not a bona fide political party because it doesn't have a proper constitution, has only "a few" members, no proper structure, no proper organization and is essentially a 'flash in the pan that will soon fade away. There are probably a few other choice criticisms, but these are the main ones that keep being repeated, probably in the hope that if they obey Josef Goebbell's dicta (remember him? Adolf Hitler's Nazi Minister of Propaganda!) that 'the bigger the lie and the more often it is repeated, the more people will believe it'.

What I find difficult to understand is why these armchair critics believe that the only way to build a political party is from the top down? Part of the success of Jack Warner (apart from the fact that he is an incredibly hard worker) is that he builds from the ground up. He spent the three months between resigning his seat in Parliament and the actual day of the bye-election literally walking every single square inch of his constituency. He literally went to every single house in the whole *&^#@&* constituency! He literally canvassed every single voter! And he literally found out what exactly were/are the problems in every area of his constituency (if he didn't know them already!).

The people of Chaguanas West (most unsurprisingly) responded overwhelmingly by giving him their collective vote. And why shouldn't they have done so? Because of unproven allegations made in a seriously flawed report by a former Barbadian jurist? The people really didn't and don't care about unproven allegations (and more on that later in another post). What the people care about is that the persons who they elect to represent them in Parliament (and elsewhere) actually do the jobs that they were put there to do.

I have said it many times: there is only one reason for politics. There is only one reason for Government. To make life better for the people!! Full stop!!! There is no other reason! What has been taking place over the last fifty or so years is that (except with one or three notable exceptions ... and, yes, I deliberately said 'one or three' because there are more than just one or two) just about every person that we have put into high office has become fat, arrogant and completely divorced from the people. There have been a thousand little things that could have and should have been done over the years to make life better for us ... which have been completely ignored by the politicians who, when they get into office, seem to forget completely the thousand and one little inconveniences that the average person must put up with every day.

The two big political parties ... the PNM and the UNC ... have existed for years on the politics of straight race, which they have barely bothered to hide. If you ain't an African or a Hindu then forget it! Crapaud will smoke your pipe! And as for that completely failed entity the COP, does anybody see after three long years exactly what they meant by "new politics" other than just a catchy slogan that sounded good on the campaign trail? Making life better for the people has been a concept that has been totally alien to our politicians of all ilks.

No. To the armchair critics who are saying that the ILP is just a flash in the pan (with absolutely no evidence whatsoever to back it up other than the certainty that whatever falls from their mouths or pens is absolutely right) I say get off your tails and go into the streets of the country. There you will find that the spark that Jack Warner lit in Chaguanas West has sped like wildfire all across the country (and, yes, Tobago is part of the country) in a way that is almost unimaginable. Sitting at the epicenter of "the storm" I will readily confess that I didn't expect the kind of positive reaction that we have been getting from all over. People are excited about the possibility that at last here is somebody who is putting his money where his mouth is and is really trying to make Trinidad & Tobago a better place for all of us. People want a better T&T!

Our problem is trying to manage the virtual tsunami of support, organize it and channel it into a credible political entity. And that we are doing ... from the ground up. Work is proceeding apace in putting down systems and procedures that will run and control the Party. We are planning to have our first convention by the end of September when the draft constitution of the Party will be presented to the membership for ratification. Coordinating teams (which will later 'morph' into Party Groups) are being formed every day. Plans are well advanced for rules and regulations that will govern and control the Party ranging from the screening of potential candidates to how the Party Groups will function and report back to the Central Executive ... and everything in between!

What is crystal clear to the ILP is that the electorate in 2013 is not the same as the electorate in, say, 1963, or even 1993. Most people are better educated and more sophisticated than they were a bare twenty years ago. And the people do NOT want 'politics as usual'. They want performance ... and that is the Jack Warner brand in one word. So, the Party is not properly organized .... yet! It will be ... and sooner than the armchair critics will find to be comfortable. (I do not mind confessing, by the way,  that I thought that I was a hard worker until I started working with the old Jack! Good grief! The (proper) demands that he makes on those who are with him really are enormous! And so they should be! The ILP team is working in a way that I have never seen a team work before!)

The slightest suggestion for change always means death to some status quo. And the ILP is threatening a heck of a lot of 'status quos' in the country right now. They should be very uncomfortable. But you know what? If the armchair critics are right and all the ILP ever achieves is that we force the other political parties to perform then I, for one, will meet my Maker with a smile and say 'we did it! We made the 'so and so's work for the betterment of our country'. And that's what it's all about!!

P.S. The ILP's "few" members as of today, number more than 106,000!! The tsunami is real!

WHAT?!?

"Denial," somebody once wrote, is a side effect of cowardice. Consciousness requires courage. When we are afraid to deal with an issue, we try to pretend it doesn't exist. That's particularly convenient when we don't know what to do. It takes real strength to say ' I don't have the answer and I'm worried that even if I can get it, I may not like it, but I am going to keep asking questions anyhow.'" That is why when I saw the Prime Minister's response to the defeat inflicted upon her Party in Monday's bye-election I found it ... well, incredulous, to say the least. Her Party didn't lose because it was still in Government!? What? But when at the end of a long week in the politics of this country, one of the very high profile leaders and a very senior Minister (Dr, Suruj Rambachan) in the PP Government says that he is "saddened" by the fact that the Independent Liberal Party (ILP) is no longer interested in joining the Partnership I had to say a loud 'WHAT?' Nobody from the Partnership Government (other than Winston 'Gypsy' Peters in his private capacity) has called any member of the interim executive of the ILP to say 'let's talk'. What do they expect? Mr. Warner has been publicly rejected ... not once but twice ... in his overtures to join the Partnership. Should he do so again? Why? To be rejected and humiliated again? What do they think that we should do? Come cap in hand when we have won? When we have beaten them? We haven't done yet any kind of scientific survey as to what our membership wants, but we have been recieving hundreds of calls from people who are telling us unequivocally that they do not want us to have anything to do with the Partnership. For every hundred of these calls we might get one or two persons telling us that we should go in with the PP Government. Jack Warner has made it clear that the ILP intends to "lead from behind", i.e., that this Party will put the wishes of its members first, as to whatever direction that the Party should go. He is clear in his thinking that the voice of the people must be listened to at all times. Perhaps, that is why he has been so successful in changing the political face of Trinidad & Tobago in such a short time against seemingly invincible odds. And not to forget that on the other side of the political divide we have had the Political Leader of the PNM saying that Mr. Warner's win will adversely affect the image of Trinidad & Tobago abroad. Again, I have to say a loud 'what'? If Dr. Rowley really believed that, why didn't he make that an issue during the campaign? Because, if he did, he certainly didn't stress it in a way that it could have been reported. And didn't Mrs. Persad-Bissessar also make this an issue during the campaign? And didn't the people consider this when they voted? What are they talking about? The traditional type of leadership that we have got, and are getting, from the two main political Parties has been exactly the same in that when either one of them is faced with (for them) an unpleasant truth or fact they fall back on denial and attacking the messenger. But the ancients had it right: Fortune does favour the bold, and the country is crying out for a bold new beginning. The ILP is going to do it's best to provide just that. In the meantime, when you hear something from politicians that don't quite make sense to you, don't be afraid to say 'what'?

OPPORTUNITIES LOST ...

My father always used to tell me when I was a teenager, often with a wry grin when I confessed to missing an opportunity to getting a kiss from a girl, "opportunities lost never return". And he was so right (and not just about the girls either)!  A lost opportunity never does return. I suppose that's something similar to the ancient Romans' admonition 'carpe diem' ('sieze the day').

I have been thinking about my father's saying as the by-election date for the Chaguanas West (CW) seat looms (5 days and counting from the date of this post). For the very first time in our modern political history the country has an opportunity to turn away from the traditional racial voting and trying something "new" (and I put that word deliberately in inverted commas). The PNM has always been openly, if not blatantly, racial. If you aren't African do not expect to get very far in that Party... certainly, you will never be the leader. The best that you can hope for is that you can become very attractive "window dressing" to give the illusion of inclusiveness. And if you happen to be non-black but very, very bright, you can only become quite powerful if you allign yourself to the right African and never, ever be a threat to him. (Do you remember Lenny Saith?)

As for the UNC, well under Basdeo Panday it made a serious effort to move to the centre and be "all inclusive". It's predecessor, the Democratic Labour Party (DLP) was a right wing Hindu party where only Hindus needed to apply. Panday, to his great credit, was much more secular and pragmatic in his thinking and was able to take the UNC into the corridors of power by being centrist and "all inclusive".

Which brings us down to today. The present leaders of the UNC certainly held themselves out to be "all inclusive" in the Panday mode, although long before the trouble with Jack Warner reared it's head we were hearing stories that the Party had veered to the right and was becoming quite "Hindu-centric". But since the by-election was announced, the gloves have come off and all pretence about being a national and a nationalist political organisation has been dropped. Just about every single person in the top brass of the UNC from Prime Minister Persad Bissessar on down has come out and preached a line that sounds dangerously close to saying to the people 'vote race'. The electorate in CW has been told in so many words that if they were to vote for Jack Warner that will be a vote for the PNM. To which any reasonable observer can only say "huh?" How that could be is not explained. Then you have people like Minister Roodal Moonilal saying things like "they" don't want Indians to drive Range Rovers, BMW's and other fancy cars, but "they" want the Indians to go back to riding in a cart pulled by a bison! Again, the reasonable observer has to ask "what?" Who the heck are "they" that do not want to see Indians getting ahead and driving fancy cars? The innuendo that I got was that "they" were anybody who was not a Hindu Indian. I will freely admit that I could be wrong, but that is what it sounded like to me!

And here is where the opportunity for the country is rearing it's head. If Jack Warner was to win in next Monday's by-election it will send a very loud signal ... an almost earth shattering one ... that the old way of thinking is well and truly dead. No longer can politicians come to us and say 'vote for me because I am African/Indian'. Now they are going to have to come and say 'vote for me because I can and will perform!'

Jack Warner has miles to go before he can sleep soundly. His new born Independent Liberal Party (ILP) still has to be put on a proper footing and be properly organised ... and no doubt the indefatigable Warner will turn his considerable energies and talents to doing just that in the weeks ahead after the election ... but he has to win his seat first. I am on record in this blog as predicting that he will do just that. Having listened carefully to all of the candidates (including those like Ishmael Samad who will lose his deposit) it is clear that only Mr. Warner has approached the electorate with a modern 21st century mindset. Mr. Warner has basically said "look, I am a performer. When I was your MP I performed and delivered those services that you required. Further, when serious allegations were made against me (all of which I deny) I resigned my seat to give you the opportunity to decide whether or not you still wanted me to represent you in the Parliament of our country'. (It is noteworthy that nobody else in our short history has ever done this!) The PNM candidate has been a total waste of time. If he has any ideas on how to make things better for his proposed constituents they haven't been reported and he has done nothing to get those ideas out into the public domain. Certainly, when he went on breakfast television about a week ago all he did was mouth meaningless platitudes. Ms. Khadija Ameen has also been a disappointment. There has been no meaningful debate on the issues facing the constituency, nor has she articulated clearly why she would be a better representative than Mr. Warner other than the fact that she wears the yellow jersey of the UNC. Again, when she has appeared on television her pronouncements have been vacuous and full of meaningless platitudes.

Mr. Warner is changing the politics of this country for what can only be the better. If the electors of CW do not re-elect him and vote tribe instead the message that the whole country will get will be obvious and most detrimental to our long term political good health. It will be an opportunity lost!

PLUS CA CHANGE ...

The old saying "plus ca change, c'est la meme chose" (the more things change, the more they stay the same)came to my mind last night. What happened was that I made a call to my 91 year old Uncle Bobby just to have a chat, say hello, and give him the latest political gossip that I had heard over the last few days. To my (not so great) surprise I realised that my phone was being tapped ... again!!

 Some readers will recall that Prime Minister Persad-Bissessar announced in Parliament in or about September 2010 that the Manning regime had systematically and routinely tapped the phones of certain politicians and other prominent persons. My name was one of those read out in Parliament. Now, until that rather surprising confession I had absolutely no justiciable evidence whatsoever that my phones had been tapped. I suspected it strongly and had even indulged myself in a little 'scam' to see whether or not there was substance to my suspicions.

You see, around March 2002, after the December 2001 elections which had produced the 18/18 result when then President Robinson had (wrongly) installed Manning as Prime Minister, both Mr. Manning and Mr. Panday were having meetings in the Hilton hotel to discuss a possible way forward. I personally believed that the meetings were a total waste of time and that Manning had absolutely no intention of making any compromise with anybody. I also believed that my phones were being tapped. Almost everytime I made or received a call I could hear a very slight echo on the line (which is what I heard last night while talking with my uncle). So I devised a scheme with a friend of mine, which, if my phones were NOT being tapped would have been completely harmless, but if they were then it would cause a certain amount of political mischief.

The day before the third scheduled Hilton meeting between Messrs. Panday and Manning, I telephoned my friend as pre-arranged. Our conversation went something like this:

Me (laughing: Boy, you won't believe the trap we have for Manning tomorrow!
Friend: What?
 Me: Well, when Manning continues to block all of our proposals we are going to go to Robinson with a letter that will be signed by 21 MP's (members of Parliament) that says that the 21 MP's all support Rowley as prime Minister.
 Friend: You have 21 MP's?
Me: Yep! Our 18 (UNC) and 3 PNM including Rowley.
 Friend: Wow! But how will that work?
Me: Easy! The Constitution says that the President must appoint as Prime Minister the person who commands a majority of MP's in the Parliament.
Friend: So, how are you doing this?
Me: Well, we take the letter to Robinson and he is constitutionally bound to appoint Rowley as the prime Minister.
Friend: With no general election?
Me: That's right! We have been very careful. We haven't been meeting with Rowley but with his representatives. we don't want Manning to find out. That's why the negotiations are taking so long. everything is now agreed. The only Cabinet post left to agree on is who will be the Attorney General. We'll get agreement on that tonight! And then tomorrow we'll drop the bombshell on Manning!

Now, that conversation was real, but the events that it purported to discuss were entirely fictitious. It had all been pre-arranged. There had never been any meetings with Dr. Rowley nor his representatives nor had there been any kind of deal made with anybody to go to the President. But, my friend and I reasoned, if my phone was indeed tapped then Manning would cancel that last Hilton meeting. And you know what? He did just that! A few hours before the meeting was scheduled to take place a curt notice was put out from the Office of the Prime Minister announcing a postponement. That last meeting never took place! Of course, this was not justiciable evidence ... nothing that you can take to Court. But it makes you think, doesn't it? It certainly made me think!

And so, I realised then that I had to be extremely careful in whatever I said or did on the phone as I believed throughout the ensuing years of the Manning regime that I was being monitored. On the one hand, I knew that I have never ,and would never involve myself in any kind of seditious or illegal activity so that I would never have anything to worry about. On the other hand, it grated badly to know that my privacy was being so ruthlessly, cavalierly and illegally invaded. It really annoyed me. I couldn't even have an argument with my wife without the persons tapping my phones knowing about it!

And it still does. It annoyed the living daylights out of me last night to realsie that this is happening all over again. I am really cross. I can't prove it ... but I know that it is happening.

So, to the security services (who I know will read this) let me say this: I am not and never have been involved in any kind of seditious or illegal activity. I know that you won't do it, but if you really want to know anything about me and my activities,  come and ask and I will answer you truthfully. In the meantime, get off my case. It is really, really annoying. I am vexed about this. Really, really vexed! And if you are doing it to me, who else are you doing it to? Surely, I am not that important?

THE SLIGHTEST SUGGESTION FOR CHANGE ...

I read a saying somewhere once that “the slightest suggestion for change always means death to some status quo”. This saying came back to me forcefully this last week as Jack Warner launched his Independent Liberal Party and the predictable reactions emerged from the two main political parties in Trinidad & Tobago. To be fair, the reactions from the PNM leadership have been more muted than those from the UNC, perhaps because the PNM knows full well that it’s young Indian candidate has as much chance of winning the Chaguanas West (CW) seat as a snowball has of surviving in Hell. The PNM’s poor sacrificial lamb of a candidate appears not to understand that he has absolutely no chance of winning the seat, or perhaps believes that throwing in with the PNM now will give him something later on when and if the PNM ever returns to the corridors of power; either way he is as dead politically as the proverbial duck. This fight is between Jack Warner and the UNC … and nobody else! The Prime Minister appears to be panicking as her attacks on Mr. Warner have become more shrill and defensive. Having thrown Mr. Warner “under the bus” a few months ago it is difficult to understand why she didn’t realise that this was a huge mistake on her part. She has made just about every mistake in the book from effectively calling Mr. Warner a crook to appealing to ethnicity and traditional tribal affiliations. But her biggest mistake is probably the same one she made a few short months ago when she entered into the fray in the Tobago House of Assembly elections. Instead of letting those elections be a strictly local or Tobagonian affair, she effectively made it, by her entry into that arena, a referendum on her government. The Tobagonian electorate reacted predictably and punished her by giving the PNM (who really deserved to lose if the campaign had been strictly local) a clean sweep of all twelve seats. Now she is entering into the fray again and attacking Mr. Warner at every chance she gets. Mr. Warner has refused, so far, to get into a slinging match with her. This by-election will be (amongst other things) a referendum on her Government. That's the last thing that she should want, especially as it looks as if she is going to lose ... and lose big time! Up to now, in our society, a deliberate break with the past has not been seen as potentially creative. Innovation is regarded as dangerous and subversive. Our society has always been highly suspicious of mass movements that throw off the restraints of traditions and the various status quos make it their goal to protect their followers from “political quackery”. Threatening of the old and established order is simply not allowed. Politics in Trinidad & Tobago has been, since 1956, a matter of cult and ritual rather than ideas; it is based on emotions not on ideology or consciously adopted theory or philosophy. This is not an unfamiliar attitude in our society; many of the people who support one party or the other are not interested in political philosophy and dislike the idea of change. They find that the traditional loyalties to the two main Parties give them a sense of security. They do not expect brilliant ideas from the leaderships and are disturbed by changes in the political rhetoric. In fact, when the political rhetoric departs from the norm they have great difficulty in knowing how to deal with these changes effectively. (Witness the Prime Minister’s ineffective responses to date to Mr. Warner’s challenge.) The old loyalties give them a sense of identity and a sense of security. And this is what makes Mr. Warner so dangerous. He has gone completely against the established order: a black man running in a predominantly Indian/Hindu constituency and looking like a runaway winner to boot! Never in our political history has this ever happened. Dr. Rowley doesn’t appear to have woken up to the very real threat that Mr. Warner’s ILP poses to the PNM. All he sees is the serious threat to the UNC. Well, he is going to be in for a most unpleasant surprise. After 29th July (the date of the by-election) expect Mr. Warner to train his guns on the East/West corridor and the extremely vulnerable PNM seats there. Mr. Warner will be able to say to the country words to the effect that ‘I am the face of the future. I am a black man who has won in an East Indian seat. The old politics are now dead. I am the new politics that the country has been yearning for’. And you know what? The country will probably buy him. The country is getting tired of the old racial divide and will embrace a new order. Of course, then it will be up to Mr. Warner to deliver. His honeymoon will be very short.

CRAPAUD POLITICS

A long time ago at an election meeting in San Fernando Dr. Eric Williams who was then the Prime Minister, said words to the effect that if a crapaud (which for the benefit of my foreign readers is a toad) wore a balisier tie (the balisier is the symbol of the PNM) that he would be elected. Dr. Williams was expressing a certain frustration because he had wanted to get rid of certain PNM candidates (the then MP for Port of Spain South, Brinsley Barrow, was one) and had been forced by the Party Groups of those constituencies to accept them as PNM candidates. He was effectively calling these persons on the PNM slate crapauds. To say that he was annoyed was putting it mildly.

The electorate well understood what he meant and although Mr. Barrow and the others were re-elected their political careers were effectively over and they were all pushed out at the next elections.

The phrase came back to me this morning as I was going to work and listening to the popular talk show duo on the radio, Dale Enoch and Tony Lee, who, in commenting on the up-coming Chaguanas West (CW) by-election,  used the phrase 'crapaud politics'. They were high lighting Prime Minister Persad-Bissessar's exhortation to the CW electorate to vote party and not personality ... an obvious not-so-tacit admission that Jack Warner is a huge problem for the People's Partnership and the UNC in particular. Mr. Warner remains extremely popular in the CW seat and probably beyond. My information (which is usually very accurate) is that all 31 party groups in the constituency nominated Mr. Warner as their candidate. The fact that the UNC Party Leadership decided to ignore the wishes of the party groups and to impose their acting chairman, Khadijah Ameen, as the UNC candidate for the CW seat is going to spell huge trouble for both the Party as well as the Party's Leadership. The voice of the people, it seems, is no longer the voice of God!

People have noticed this obvious dichotomy and they are talking. There is a level of dissatisfaction that is rising now in the country that has to be disturbing to the UNC Leadership ... if they are listening! The problem is that the UNC Leadership appears to be "getting high on their own supply" and attempts to bring them down to earth by well meaning supporters who are worried about the looming crash,  are dismissed with a casualness that borders on arrogance.

Then too, the newspapers don't help by their continued inaccurate reporting. Take, for example, an article in yesterday's Sunday Guardian
that said that the UNC motorcade was met with a warm welcome in Felicity on Saturday. I was surprised by the article and decided to check it out by telephoning someone in that area who has always reported to me faithfully what has been going on down there. Her exact words were "dose newspapers could lie! If it had ten people from Felicity in dat motorcade it had plenty!"  So, why was the Guardian deliberately misleading it's readers? I can think of only two possible reasons: (a) the reporter is incompetent; or (b) the Guardian wants to mislead the UNC Leadership into a false sense of security because the newspaper is really against the Government and wants them to lose. I freely admit that there might be another reason for the inaccuracy, but for the life of me I can't think what it might be.

But that is a digression. The point here is that Jack Warner is going to upset the crapaud politics that has prevailed in this country for more than fifty years. When (and not "if") he wins he will be able to say convincingly that he is the new face of politics in this country. His victory will not only be a terrible blow for the UNC but also for the PNM whose seats the formidable Warner is bound to turn his attention to. The two major Parties in this country cannot be happy over the developing scenario. Both of them have played their respective hands very badly against Mr. Warner who is looking more and more like a winner with each passing day. And people love winners!

P.S.  The return of a triumphant Jack Warner to the House of Representatives is going to spell serious trouble for the Persad-Bissessar regime in more ways than one. One of the things that Mrs. Persad-Bissessar is going to have to pay close attention to is her seemingly invincible majority. At the moment she commands 28 of the 41 seats in Parliament. She will  no longer be able to count on CW when (and not "if") Jack Warner wins. No big thing you say? Well, it could become a big thing. There are several Parliamentarians on the PP side who are likely to go over to Jack, especially as all of their seats are vulnerable and could fall to the PNM in the next elections if they don't. There are 3 UNC seats, the occupants of which look as though they will throw in with Mr. Warner: these are Ortoire/Mayaro (Gypsy), St. Joseph (Volney) and San Juan/Barataria (Fuad Khan). Now Herbert Volney isn't the brightest bulb in the room and he ain't worth "diddley squat" in the polls but he does at present occupy a seat, and therein lies a huge problem for the Prime Minister. In addition, there are COP seats occupied by the likes of Anil Roberts, Lincoln Douglas and Winston DeCoteau that will likely go over to Jack. (If they don't, they will lose to the PNM in the next general election.)That's a total of seven seats including Jack's. The margin starts to get very uncomfortable. The PP will then be dependent on the two Tobago seats to remain in office until 2015. Interesting, eh? And we haven't yet begun to discuss what will happen when the next general election rolls around!!