YOUNG FOR PRIME MINISTER? Part 2

 Well, so far it seems that I am losing my bet with myself that the PNM will never choose Stuart Young as their leader. It seems that the whispers that I picked up on Monday were true in that the  support for Mr. Young to be leader of the PNM were true. The latest whispers are that there was a certain amount of 'bribery' (for  want of a better word) in that certain people were promised certain things if they supported Mr. Young. Is this true? I haven't the foggiest idea. My sources are the same as on Monday when I got the word that this was Dr. Rowley's plan before it was announced.

Now, having got the support of the Parliamentary caucus behind him (the reports are 11 in favour with 9 against) the next step will be the General Council. If Mr. Young wins there then he will be the next Prime Minister whenever Dr. Rowley chooses to step down. So what could happen next?

First of all, understand that a Prime Minister is chosen by the President from the person who in the opinion of the President is likely to be able to command a majority IN THE HOUSE Of REPRESENTATIVES. And that is where the General Council can come in. The General Council can threaten, for example, the present M.P.'s that they  will lose the backing of the Party if they vote for Mr. Young. 

The Opposition can, in the meantime, file a motion of no confidence in the Lower House which will give them an opportunity to highlight the problems in the ruling PNM. Dr. Rowley can avoid this for the time being by proroguing the Parliament - but this will only be a temporary fix of about 3 months. Remember also that according to the Constitution, Parliament has to meet only once every 6 months according to the Constitution, so he can simply avoid calling the Parliament after the debate that has to be held on the State of Emergency

No matter which way it turns, we are looking at a General Election, probably sooner rather than later. In the meantime,  Dr. Rowley can continue to control the country - even after he demits office as Mr. Young has absolutely zero support either in the Party or in the country and will be completely dependent on Dr. Rowley for support. 

Actually, that may have been Dr. Rowley's plan to hold on to power all along! He is, after all, a superb politician.

PRIME MINISTER STUART YOUNG?

 There are unconfirmed reports that at a secret meeting of the Cabinet Dr. Rowley tried to get the Cabinet to agree that Minister of Energy Stuart Young would be his successor. According to these unconfirmed reports there was tremendous 'push back' from the Cabinet.

While both of these reports are highly believable  it has to be noticed that they are unconfirmed. Assuming (though certainly not accepting) that there is truth in these two rumours, they certainly warrant a closer look. On the one hand, Mr. Young has been a very close confidant of Dr. Rowley from the very beginning. He has shown great loyalty to Dr. Rowley and has not hesitated to paint his leader in the most favourable light. On the other hand , he is not black. Question: will the rank and file of the PNM accept this? Other question: will the rank and file feel that Mr. Young is responsible for a lot of the 'screw-ups' and that swinging behind a non-black man will be the same thing as allowing an Indian (Mrs. Persad Bissessar) into power? In other words, they would have nothing to lose by 'sitting on their hands'.

 Dr. Rowley, for example, can resign as leader of the PNM but stay on as Prime Minister until a new leader is chosen. Put another way, there are several options open to him. One thing is certain though: the longer he stays the more difficult his successor (whoever it may be) will find it hard to get established.

The problem is that the economy has not done well under Dr. Rowley; house prices and rents are soaring as well as food prices; everything costs more. Two people can eat in a restaurant in Miami for one sixth of thecost for the same meal in Port of Spain.

I can understand Dr. Rowley's preference for Mr. Young (assuming but not accepting that there is any truth in these rumours). It would come at a time when the Opposition is very weak and would belie the belief that the PNM is racist. On the other hand, Mr. Young would be the weakest leader to date having no racial or other base to rely on.

Prime Ministers get extremely accurate security reports that  say explicitly which party is currently in the lead in the polls. It is not therefore beyond the realm of possibility that the Prime Minister's announcement of his intention to resign was influenced by the fear that he was going to lose the coming elections based on his security reports and he wants to be perceived as being undefeated.. He has already taken care of his pension (which will be in excess of $84,000)  and will have more than enough time to indulge in his favourite pastime - golf!

Well, we'll see soon enough. I have a bet with myself (and ONLY with myself) that this won't happen, i.e., that the PNM will NOT choose Mr. Young as its leader. But then, we'll soon see, won't we?