By all that is normal the PNM should lose the coming election in a landslide. That they have screwed up mightily is beyond question and I defy anybody to defend their record. They seem to have forgotten that there is only one reason for politics -only one reason for Government - and that is to make life better for the people! Full stop! There is no other reason. And while there are a (very) few people who are indeed better off than they were 10 years ago, the vast majority in the country is not. Everything costs more and our energy revenues are seriously down.
But (and there is always a "but") all indications are that the UNC has not captured the public's imagination and that there will be a very low poll. The PNM has historically always done better when there is a low poll; so what should be a walk over for the Opposition is not. There are a few people who say that they will "hold their noses" and vote for the UNC because they feel that the Opposition might as well be given a chance. Unfortunately (but fortunately for the PNM) the amount of these persons are not enough to make a difference.
Both Parties enjoy a block of approximately 30 percent each in support, from the electorate. that leaves about 40 percent of which about 15 percent lean toward one or the other of the two main Parties. The remaining 10 percent is truly independent BUT unlikely to vote this time around. The gerrymandering of the constituencies by the PNM over the years will ensure that the PNM wins again).
So, it looks like we are going to get another 5 years of PNM rule. If I am right, despite the change at the top of the ruling Party, gird your loins for another 5 years of PNM rule and all that goes with it. The only bright spot will be that a defeat this time around will spell the end of Mrs. Persad Bissessar's hold on the UNC. Because, when anybody looks at the UNC's policies and solutions for everything from the economy to energy and everything in between, their solutions and proposals look good. But? Can they sell it to the uncommitted? A week is a long time in politics and we have a month left, so all bets are off. But all indications are that there will be a low poll. If there is then expect the PNM to win - again. And don't look at the crowds (or lack of them) at the various political meetings Crowds don't win elections: votes do!
If you don't like what I am saying, go and vote and prove me wrong.