There is some speculation that Prime Minister Rowley may go to the polls early - maybe in August of this year. (The elections are due by September of next year). The speculation is being fueled by various perceptions; the first one of these is that things (mainly the economy) are going to get worse and that now would be a better time for the PNM to go rather than later. The next perception is that the UNC is in disarray and that it would be advantageous to take advantage of this disarray right now before the UNC has a chance to correct this perception. Both of these perceptions have some validity.
The third and final perception is that Dr. Rowley and his team are more competent than Mrs. Persad-Bissessar's team as well as the UNC leader herself. It is this last perception that the PNM will probably try to hammer home over the next few months. The fact is that the PNM has established itself as the "default" party that the country will turn to if there is no clear or viable alternative, and they will argue that whatever their faults the country is better off with them in charge. And this is arguably the most important perception of all.
Most people believe that both sides have their share of corrupt people, so corruption will not play in the minds of voters.
In order for the UNC to win Mrs. Persad-Bissessar has not only to present clearly a better and more viable team than Dr. Rowley's, But also (and more importantly) that she is better and more competent than Dr. Rowley. General elections in this country are always more Presidential in scope than Prime Ministerial - by that I mean that the person at the head of the ticket is always more important than any other particular candidate.
And so, the question will boil down to who does the electorate think is more competent to run the country. Dr. Rowley will have the advantage of a weak political opponent as well as the perception that the PNM is really the "default" party, i.e., the party that people will turn to when the alternative appears to be less acceptable. Mrs. Persad-Bissessar will have the advantage that Dr. Rowley & Co. have screwed up so badly that they deserve to be fired.
But nowhere will there be any type of debate about the competence (or lack of it) of the two sides. Instead the country will in effect be bombarded (both figuratively as well as literally) with race talk. It says a lot , doesn't it?
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