POLITICAL MUSINGS

 WE ARE still about 19 months, legally, from when the next election in T&T is due. Clearly, so far out it is not really possible to make any kind of accurate prediction about what will happen. The truth is that as things stand right now, any number can play. But it might be helpful to look at some straws in the wind.

The first 'straw' is definitely crime. Apart from the obvious incompetence of both the Minister of National Security and his hand-picked Commissioner of Police as well as a climbing (and seemingly out of control) murder rate, just about everybody in this country has either been a victim of crime or knows someone who has been a victim.  Every single day there is a report in the newspapers of a murder or a robbery or of a beating of somebody. How this will play out at the polls is anybody's guess, but this problem is causing some PNM core support to slip. What is interesting though, is that this support is by and large not going over to the Opposition UNC but seems instead to be just "parked" up. The UNC has so far been unable to convince anybody (except for its core supporters) that it can and will do a better job on this issue.

The second "straw" is the economy. While most voters understand that a large problem with our economy is that just about everything that we eat is imported and people do understand that a sizeable portion of the current inflation is imported and therefore, not the Government's fault. But many people have lost their jobs and the cost of everything is going up. We all read about the price of oil going down sometimes, but our gasoline prices never do. People notice these things, especially when times are tough - as they are now. As it is, too many people have lost their jobs for the PNM to feel comfortable.

The third "straw" is that people generally are not enamored with either political Party or their respective leaders.  The UNC has not addressed this problem, and while it seems that they are trying to do something about it and are aware that it exists the UNC hierarchy seems to be banking on the fact that the "fed upness" with the PNM is such that a sufficient number of PNM voters will simply stay home and not vote, while most of their supporters will turn out and vote.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the opinion of Dr. Rowley generally is not a good one. A sizeable proportion of the population do not seem to hold him in very high regard. Unfortunately for the UNC, the same can be said of their leader.  Whether either or both can fix this problem remains to be seen. There is a lot of time left  and anything can happen. Meanwhile, there are a number of (for want of a better word) 'fringe' parties that so far haven't been able to make a note. They have all been campaigning and crying out for change, but so far none of them have set fire to the population in a way that they can seriously be considered as a viable alternative, although, to be fair, many of their criticisms are most valid. What they can (and probably will) do is to take enough votes away in a marginal constituency and thus hand the election to one side or the other. Both the PNM and the UNC are aware of this particular problem but neither has done anything about it  -  yet! 

I have been making a joke that because of this situation that I'm going to form my own political Party. People take me seriously until they hear my name for the new Party: the Free Democratic Action Trinidad & Tobago Party, or FDATT for short. Everyone who has heard the name of my new party says that they will vote for it!