I'm certain that many of my (few?) readers have wondered at one time or the other as to why the PNM has managed to hold power for about 60 years. The Party retains considerable latent support, resilience and mobilization ability, even if the present regime is inept at capitalizing on those issues. There is a reason the PNM factors so prominently in the country's political history over the last 60 years: the Party frequently uses, misuses and eventually restores hard ground support.
On top of that, the Party's founder, Dr. Eric Williams, laid down a blueprint for a decision making system that is more of a pyramid, with all lines of authority flowing or descending from the Political Leader's office. This means that all major issues are ultimately settled at the top.
Of course, Dr. Rowley doesn't decide everything himself. He often kicks matters down to a level where elite factions bargain - or fight-them out. But on high priority matters- or when the bosses can't agree - Dr. Rowley steps in to impose "manual control", often with the television cameras rolling to show his decisiveness.
An overcentralized system can work tolerably well in quiet times. The clear lines of authority can help in solving minor problems. But the need for the Political Leader to weigh in personally becomes a serious issue when the more complex problems are fast developing. The centre is quickly overwhelmed, which can lead to cascading mistakes. The Prime Minister has had to simultaneously deal with a pandemic, elite conflicts, economic failures, shrinking budget resources, unrest and unhappiness over crime as well as other issues.
Then of course, like all authoritarian rulers, Dr. Rowley's second area of vulnerability is the need for him to project strength. He tends to rely on an elaborate game - most of his supporters are motivated by corruption rather than conviction, but they act out of faith that the system will survive, meltdown is certainly not inevitable. But if meltdown happens , how would it play out? As problems intensify they would likely tend to exacerbate each other.
What is happening right now in the country is that there is a general draining of confidence. Dr. Rowley has hinted that he might be prepared to throw in the towel and quit. But he would want to control not only who his successor might be, but also to control his successor. Of course events might just overtake him and he might find himself so hated by the electorate as being the person who brought the various disasters (crime, the economy, etc.) that he finds no way out. On the other hand, he might just be able to hold on. Certainly, the whole situation is most unpredictable at the moment as the opposition UNC has been unable (for whatever reason) to capitalize on Dr. Rowley's many mistakes.
You seem to have left out the racial/tribal support factor. Also, is it possible that the UNC has been compromised as in Rowley has damning evidence against KPB and is blackmailing her? All in all this was a good read.
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