All the signs are there pointing to a snap early election. Certainly, the Opposition is smacking its licks at the prospect, but is this a good thing for T&T? Why do a lot of people think that there will be an early election?
Starting with the second question first, the biggest hint is the fact that the budget is being held early - a month before it is due in fact. The argument is that calling a snap election for, say, December, would give the Government a chance to proclaim a "sweetheart" budget with lots and lots of "goodies" so people will be distracted by how bad things really are.
The second hint is in the statements of the Prime Minister, where, for example, as was announced in today's papers, he is being reported as announcing a gratuitous payment to health care workers for their work during the Covid pandemic. The Prime Minister is obviously speaking to his base and is hoping to "bribe" it with some "goodies" so that during an election campaign he can say 'look at what we have done for you'.
The third hint is that the Prime Minister is scheduled to leave the country on the same afternoon after the budget speech is read to go to Switzerland (of all places)! Ostensibly the purpose of the visit to Switzerland has to do with oil and gas and the PM will be meeting some bigwigs there from those industries which have investments in the country. Some unkind souls have suggested quite openly that his visit to Switzerland has more to do with his personal business than with the country's. After all, they argue, to get to Switzerland from T&T one has to go through London and the people that he is supposedly meeting are based in London. So why go to Switzerland? Certainly, that is a good question that ought to be answered. Failure to answer gives rise to all sorts of rumours and unprintable speculations some or all of which might be true.
On the other hand, things really aren't very good in T&T right now. The roads are full of potholes, the crime rate is soaring and a lot of people simply don't have their jobs anymore. It certainly is not the best time to call an election. But if Rowley and Co. (who have access to information that the rest of us don't have) believe that things are going to get worse rather than better, now would be a good time to go to the polls. Crime is getting worse by the day and Dr. Rowley's acting Commissioner of Police is increasingly appearing to be an incompetent buffoon. And, assuming that Dr. Rowley was right to say that Gary Griffith was just about the worst decision that he ever made, one can't help but wonder how he feels about Mr. Jacob? At least under Mr. Griffith the statistics suggest that crime was falling!
Then there is the question of Dr. Rowley's health - which is shrouded in mystery. Another rumour is that he is planning to step down as prime minister and 'step up' to the Presidency (a la ANR Robinson) when the term of the current President expires. That would, of course, mean no early election.
There are too many rumours going around with not enough information being shared by the powers that be in order for anybody to make a guess. Any one or all of the rumours might be true as well as they might all be false. What is vital is that we listen carefully to each one, discard those that are obviously untrue (e.g. Dr. Rowley is a Martian) and store away the rest for future retrieval. Some rumours are based on things that somebody who ought to know has told somebody else and therefore are based on facts. But which ones are fact based and which are not is almost impossible to tell at this time.
But, we can look at straws in the wind. And the current straws floating around do suggest that something is going on behind the scenes. What that "something" is, is of course, another story altogether. Would an early election be good for the country? Hard to say at this time.
What a pity that the media in this country is incompetent! If they were not, a lot of these questions would be answered. But then (as Sparrow once sang) 'we like it so'.
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