THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION

When Trinbagonians go to the polls in a general election (whether later this year as many believe will happen, or in September next year when it is due) it could very well be the last time for a very long time that the PNM wins an overall majority, unless the Party renews itself and starts to deliver on its promises to increasingly disgruntled supporters. Certainly, the available evidence suggests that just ain't gonna happen any time soon ... but a week is a long time in politics and unless your name is Vishnu Bisram of NACTA fame you will not want to make any type of prediction to have it come back and bite you in the nether regions! We'll have to wait and see, even though many of us still feel that we're getting wet by the rain that the erstwhile Finance Minister says has gone which allows him now to see clearly.


As things stand today (and certainly not tomorrow or even next week) the opposition UNC is likely to retain its 18 seats.  But the real fight will be in the marginal seats,  and as things stand right now it very much looks like the PNM may take a hit in those marginal seats that it now holds. Assuming (though obviously not accepting) that my crystal ball is fairly accurate as to how things stand today, it looks like the PNM will take a hit (i.e., it will lose) at least San Fernando West, St. Joseph, Tunapuna and Tobago East. In the first 3, if the UNC wins them while holding on to it's 18 seats that puts them over the top and into government. (Remember that the "magic" number is 21!) If the PNM loses all 3 but manages to "steal" a UNC seat (which I honestly don't see happening ... but, hey! We're speculating) then we get a rather interesting scenario with Watson Duke & Co. holding Tobago East and therefore the balance of power. (I'm saying this based on various reports that I have received which suggest that Mr. Duke will win Tobago East if there was an election today!) Now, if THAT happens, we could well be reading "Prime Minister Watson Duke said today ..."! Don't laugh! It could happen and Mr. Duke seems to be playing for just that eventuality.


Further,  I will be the first to admit that there are other PNM seats that look as though they might be up for grabs. My list of 3 seats falling in Trinidad is by no means meant to be conclusive. Honestly, as things stand right now I believe that at least another 2 PNM held seats will fall (Moruga/Tableland and La Horquetta/Talparo).  My real point is that in the Parliamentary system that we have its no good saying "I feel that X party will win". You have to say which seats will stay and which will fall to the other side (whoever "the other side" might be). And that's what I'm trying to do here.


That we (the T&T electorate) have a very real problem and a very serious choice to make when the election comes is indisputable. Both major political parties have huge corruption issues attached to their names. The UNC is still struggling with all of the allegations against them and which have been given new life by the Ramlogan/Ramdeen charges. But the ruling PNM is also facing some terrible allegations of corruption such as the depositing of $140,000 in cash by a senior minister with no explanation being given as to where the cash came from, the closure of Petrotrin and the proposed sale of the refinery, the "Fake Oil" scandal, the Tobago ferries, the Australian boats,  "Emailgate", etc.. Unfortunately, the list on both sides is too long for comfort.


Sadly, I expect the 'race card' to be played in the next elections. There already is some evidence of this happening.  Maybe that is the real reason why we can't seem to get our act together and make this little country of ours the proverbial "shining city on the hill".