WOULD YOU KILL THE FATMAN?

Like most people (or at least an overwhelming majority) I was very pleased with the May 24th victory of the People's Partnership at the polls for reasons that hopefully are very obvious. (If they aren't to you, then I'll happily debate them, but there are more important matters to discuss at the moment). What concerns me now that the new Government is settling down and settling in is that there are a number of economic or financial "potholes" (for want of a better word) left in the way of the new Government by the Manning administration that can de-rail the Government before it even gets off the ground.

Let me put it to you this way: Let's say that you were in charge of a railway switch. Coming down the track at ninety miles an hour is a huge locomotive that is totally out of control. Now, if you leave it on its present track it will run straight into a very fat man and kill him immediately. If, however, you throw the switch and send the train onto the other track it will run into twelve people a little further down the track and kill all of them in five minutes from now. You cannot warn either the fatman or the twelve people about this imending disaster. If you do nothing, everybody dies. What do you do? would you kill the fat man in order to save the other twelve? Everybody is innocent! It's a terrible choice, isn't it?

Well, that is something like the choice facing the new Government on a variety of matters. In other words, Prime Minister Persad Bissessar is going to have to make some very harsh decisions very soon that will hurt a lot of people. The first "pothole" or "runaway train" that we are facing is the crisis at State owned Petrotrin. Petrotrin has a debt of somewhere in the vicinity of TT$18 billion! There is no way that the company can survive unless something is done, and soon. The only options that appear to be on the cards are:

(a) massive retrenchment (approaching something like fifty per cent of

the work force), or

(b) a devaluation of the TT dollar which would increase the TT dollar

earnings of the Government and thus make this debt more

manageable (remember that the vast majority of the Government's

income is in US dollars).

Then there is the CL Financial/CLICO "pothole" or "runaway train". That particular hole is about TT$50 billion. The last administration was most reluctant to sell of the CL Financial assets, but it is difficult to see how the new Government will be able to avoid doing so. In any event, even with a sale the hole remains uncomfortably large.

Then there is the question of Errol McLeod's influence in teh Cabinet. Will he go along with a reduction of the workforce at Petrotrin if that is the recommendation of the experts or will he insist on a devaluation? In other words, will the pain be confined to a few or to the whole country?

There are other problems as well. It is clear that Mrs. Bissessar's team have inherited a huge mess. It is also clear that there is going to have to be a series of rather harsh and difficult measures that will be needed to get the country back on track. The question that has to be on everyone's minds is what exactly does the new Government propose? Well, we shall all find out soon enough I suppose. But make no mistake about it, they have their work cut out for them!! I genuinely wish them well. If they fail we are @#$%^&*!!!!!!!!!!