THE UNC INTERNAL ELECTIONS – More Important Than You May Think!

The UNC internal elections are attracting an understandable amount of attention. The UNC is after all the official opposition Party and, some might argue, the only realistic alternative to the ruling PNM. I use the word “realistic” deliberately and in the political sense in that I honestly don’t believe that given its present configuration that the Congress of the People can attract enough voters to win a single seat. Of course, a week in politics (to quote former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson) is a long time and I suppose that the boys and girls in the COP are hoping that something might happen to change their political fortunes, but frankly, I wouldn’t hold my breath. The COP has been unable to attract any new voters to its cause, and looks as if it has in fact lost quite a few who voted for it in the last elections.

In any case, I don’t think that a lot of people realise that despite the COP’s intervention in the last election the UNC came remarkably close to winning it outright! Something like 9,000 votes separated the UNC from a victory at the polls in the last election. Surprised? Take a look at the difference between the UNC votes and the PNM votes in six marginal constituencies (St. Joseph, Tunapuna, San Fernando West, Chaguanas East, Barataria/San Juan and Pointe-a-Pierre) and add them up. The total difference between the 2 parties comes to about 9,000 votes. Now, if you take, say, half the COP votes in each constituency and “give” them to the UNC you will begin to understand the dynamics and electoral strategies of the various UNC players from Panday to Ramesh and back through Kamla. If you had added half of the COP votes in these constituencies to the UNC’s votes in the last elections we would have had a UNC government with 21 seats to the PNM’s 20! That is one of the reasons that Panday is so bitter towards Dookeran. Panday’s argument that Dookeran’s intervention cost the UNC the election is not without some justification.

In other words, it doesn’t matter what the Corridor thinks of Panday or whether the people in the “PNM till ah dead” strongholds believe that he is the worst thing in the world. The truth is that the UNC can reasonably count on 15 seats in every election; the PNM on 20. The real battle is in the six marginals. They represent the difference between ‘heaven’ and ‘hell’; government or opposition.

That is why Mr. Panday defies his critics who all say that he is past it, too tainted to continue, and not acceptable to the country. He knows that they are wrong. He knows that all he has to do is hold his base and win back some of the voters who deserted him for Dookeran in the last election. Of course, the key is in the phrase “he has to hold his base…”. But there is a very real chance that he will be able to do so (i.e. hold the base together) in the next elections if he wins in January. And if he can hold his base together his chances of being able to grab the “missing” 9,000 odd votes is pretty good, or put it this way, quite possible (as opposed to probable). So, don’t write off the old man yet!

Meanwhile back at the ranch, Ramesh is mounting what he hopes will be a strong challenge. Ramesh incidentally also understands the electoral maths and therefore is not as concerned as one might expect as to his general country wide acceptance or lack of it. And, of course, there is Kamla. She is due to give a press conference tomorrow in which it is widely expected that she will declare her candidacy for leadership of the Party. What has been interesting to see is the number of callers on the call-in radio shows in the last few days who have been suggesting that they “know” that she is not going to run after all. She appears to have a lot of support and if the “jungle drums” are any indication she might even beat out Mr. Panday. Well, we’ll see soon enough, won’t we!

And finally, there is the ubiquitous Jack Warner. Although both he and Ramesh are denying that there is a split their respective words and actions certainly seem to contradict this. What happened between them? Nobody seems to know, but clearly they aren’t as close as they were before. Now, I do have a question: what does Jack want? Does he want to be “kingmaker” or does he want to be “king”. His words suggest that he wants only to be the “kingmaker” but his actions seem to suggest that what he really wants is to be “king”.

As you will appreciate, all of this is important. The United National Congress is the only (at this time) credible political Party that has a chance of resting the government from Manning’s grasp. The truth is that if the Party were able to get its act together that chance could easily become a real chance. But, as I said earlier, a week in politics is a long time and the truth is that there are many, many numbers still to play in the game before the next general elections. The message today is simply, pay attention. The UNC is more relevant than you might think!