Okay. I had promised to say why I think that the UNC will win the next elections, so here goes: it is tempting to sum it up in one word - race - but that wouldn't explain all the nuances that are at play here. First of all, race is a factor; most Africans as well as Indians - especially the uneducated ones - will vote according to their ethnicity. This is the main reason why in 1986 the then ruling PNM under George Chambers was able to garner almost 300 votes when it was clear that the overwhelming majority in the country had felt that the Chambers' Government had screwed things up so badly that they felt that they could take a chance with the new-born NAR. Put another way, both the UNC as well as the PNM have rock solid bases of approximately 30 percent each of the electorate. Of the remaining 40 percent about 30 percent lean one way or the other and we have only about 10 percent who are genuine "floaters".
And this is why most political observers believe that the situation will stay as it is with the very small minority of genuine floating voters leaning one way or the other depending on the performance and what their guts tell them about the two sides. The PNM has a psychological advantage in that for most of the floating voters it is regarded as the "default" party, in other words, where both sides are viewed as equally bad, the majority of the floating vote traditionally goes with the PNM. Certainly, this is what happened the last time in 2020. But because Dr. Rowley & Co. have been screwing up so badly in recent times, this is likely to change. Please note that the two most important words in that last sentence are "likely to" and one would be foolish to make a bet on this so early in the game. A lot can happen in the meantime that could make them swing one way or the other.
No. The real 'flea in the ointment' (or whatever the saying is) is Mr. Watson Duke's party, the PDP. Take a look at why I'm saying this: as things stand at the moment PNM has 21 of the 41 seats in the country; the UNC has 19 which is why it is in opposition. But Mr. Duke's party looks set to win the 2 Tobago seats in the next election, which will bring the PNM down to 19. Mrs. Persad-Bissessar's UNC is likely to hold on its 19 seats. So? Why am I saying that UNC will win? These numbers would suggest a minority government.
Because Mr. Duke has signaled that he intends to come to Trinidad as well as staying in Tobago. If he does come where do you think that he will get his votes from? Aaaahhh! You got it! He'll by and large get his votes from the poorer or lower class Africans - the PNM's traditional base. The UNC's traditional base will not move in favour of another black party. So? What do you think will happen in marginal seats like Barataria or St. Augustine for example? The PDP will more than likely take enough votes from the PNM that will cause the UNC in our first pass the post system to romp home to victory even if the combined votes of the PNM and the PDP are greater than the UNC's in the particular constituency. Mr. Duke is most unlikely to pick up any disaffected UNC voters.
And so folks, if (and it's always a big "if" this far off the date for the next elections) things stay more or less the same, the lead story on television the next time around after the elections will likely begin with the words "Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar said today ...".
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