THE COMING ELECTION - A LOW POLL?

 By all that is normal the PNM should lose the coming election in a landslide. That they have screwed up mightily is beyond question and I defy anybody to defend their record. They seem to have forgotten that there is only one reason for politics -only one reason for Government - and that is to make life better for the people! Full stop! There is no other reason. And while there are  a (very) few people who are indeed better off than they were 10 years ago, the vast majority in the country is not. Everything costs more and our energy revenues are seriously down.

But (and there is always a "but") all indications are that the UNC has not captured the public's imagination and that there will be a very low poll. The PNM has historically always done better when there is a low poll; so what should be a walk over for the Opposition is not. There are a few people who say that they will "hold their noses" and vote for the UNC because they feel that the Opposition might as well be given a chance. Unfortunately (but fortunately for the PNM) the amount of these persons are not enough to make a difference.

Both Parties enjoy a block of approximately 30 percent each in support, from the electorate. that leaves  about 40  percent of which about 15 percent lean toward one or the other of the two main Parties. The remaining 10 percent is truly independent BUT unlikely to vote this time around. The gerrymandering of the constituencies by the PNM over the years will ensure that the PNM wins again).

So, it looks like we are going to get another 5 years of PNM rule. If I am right, despite the change at the top of the ruling Party,  gird your loins for another 5 years of PNM rule and all that goes with it. The only bright spot will be that a defeat this time around will spell the end of Mrs. Persad Bissessar's hold on the UNC.  Because, when anybody looks at the UNC's policies and solutions for everything from the economy to energy and everything in between, their solutions and proposals look good. But? Can they sell it to the uncommitted? A week is a long time in politics and we have a month left, so all bets are off. But all indications are that there will be a low poll. If there is then expect the PNM to win - again. And don't look at the crowds (or lack of them) at the various political meetings Crowds don't win elections: votes do!

If you don't like what I am saying, go and vote and prove me wrong. 

THE COMING VOTE

 That everything in the coming election points at the moment to a tight race. On the one hand, the new Prime Minister has signaled that if given a chance he will do some things differently, e.g., he has replaced two serial losers, Colm Imbert the Finance Minister, and Fitzgerald Hinds the National Security Minister. Lost in all this has been the fact that Keith Rowley is the Political Leader of the ruling PNM and none of those changes could have taken place without his express approval. Mr. Young's choice of Attorney General is also curious, She has never distinguished herself at the Bar and has been from day one a fanatical supporter of Dr. Rowley. Her appointment might also be taken as suggesting that no half decent lawyer wanted to be associated at this time with the PNM. So? Is it simply the desperate reshuffling of a poor hand or a signal of changes to come?

But on the other side we have a lady who has proven herself to have no original ideas or even to get out of the mess that we are in. She is also tainted with the label of serial loser and has managed to take complete control of her Party by ensuring that none of the competent people in the UNC who have not exhibited blind loyalty to her are going to be candidates this time around.

The result is that far from being a cakewalk, the UNC finds itself having to rely on race and is struggling to find thinking people to support it. That this could change in the next few weeks is a given. But all indications are that it will be  a low poll with a lot of people simply saying 'a pox on both your houses; I ain't voting'. At this stage it is difficult to say which Party will be hurt more -  the PNM or the UNC - from this attitude.

WHO TO VOTE FOR?

 By all that is normal, the UNC should win the next election (due by August this year) in a cakewalk. Regrettably, for the country, Kamla Persad Bissessar's  recent decimation of her front line has given the ruling PNM some hope for "salvation". They will try and argue that with a new leader there is hope. The  problem here is that the "new" leader is inextricably linked to the old one and the old one's policies. There is no evidence whatsoever that Mr. Young will do anything except to carry on as before.

To counteract the damage that she has inflicted on the UNC, Mrs. Persad Bissessar has started laying out some of her policy decisions and proposals, e.g., she is proposing the abolition of the very unpopular property tax. What she hasn't said as yet is how she intends to pay for the proposals that she wants to implement After looking at her proposals, I think that she is on the right track, But (and it is a big "but") there is a serious question of how these proposals will affect the country's economic position and how we are going to pay for it?

That the PNM has screwed up mightily is beyond question. But it seems unfair to the electorate that the choice we are being faced with is on the one hand a bunch of donkeys who can't  get us out of trouble (which they caused in the first place) and on the other side a populist who is only too happy to make promises that can't be fulfilled.

On balance, perhaps it might be better for the country to vote the UNC into office After all, the PNM has messed up so badly that they really don't deserve another chance. But don't expect that things will automatically get better. Haiti has shown us that when a country starts to sink, there is no bottom.